I would give serious thought at expansion right now. More product. More quality schools. IMO it can only help. 10 is great for things like round robin scheduling, but I think the larger a conference is, the more it moves the needle.
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I would give serious thought at expansion right now. More product. More quality schools. IMO it can only help. 10 is great for things like round robin scheduling, but I think the larger a conference is, the more it moves the needle.
I'd only take Dayton if we could sub out DePaul.
Dayton, St. Louis, Wichita State - I would be absolutely shocked if the conference expanded with two of these teams and nobody from out East.
Does a new school add to the pie such that each existing school gets more? If not, there is no need to expand.
I would think Dayton would be a possibility for expansion as would St. Louis, Richmond or maybe even Davidson. Wichita State and VCU would be no goes, profile of those school does not fit with the rest of the conference.
Any expansion needs to likely include one East Coast team for every Midwest team. Georgetown seems to have veto power on VCU, who else is there? Richmond? Rhode Island? Old Dominion? Charlotte? The only viable option seems to be the old chestnut about UConn dropping football. Can't see it.
If Dayton kept Archie, I think the answer would be yes. Over the past two years, they earned 7 tournament shares. That's a pretty sizable amount. Though if Archie leaves, I'm not sure they sustain that. They'll likely have trouble sustaining it even if he stays, but I do think they would be able to perennially make the tournament with him, and that alone for me would be worth it. It's not just about TV money, but March success that gives a program value.
But it all comes down to who comes with them. If it's Wichita State, fine, do it. But as Jim noted, it would probably have to be an East Coast team, and as I asked, are there any of value? VCU has enough cachet and is a reliable enough bet to make the Dance that I'd say yes. I'm slowly starting to believe Smart might become their Mark Few. But who else on the East Coast is worth it? I'm not sure anyone is.
I've always like Dayton as they draw well and are in the top 10 in the country in TV ratings per city. There fan base is very easy to hate.
I personally would add VCU, Davidson, Wichita St, and Dayton. Davidson would be risky though since McKillop is getting up there in age, but he also has a high basketball IQ.
If Archie leaves, Dayton has the fan support and the administrative support for basketball. You throw the Big East into the picture, and I think they could hire a good coach.
As an aside, and I know I am in the large minority of caring about this, but Dayton's women's program is really good too.
Good read from "Frank the Tank"
http://frankthetank.me/2015/03/25/up...down-the-line/
Wichita State is basically the Boise State of basketball. Fans like them, university presidents look down on them.
Had no idea they had FBS football. All the more reason expansion will be difficult. Just not that many good non-football, East Coast basketball schools.
No it does not add more to the pie.
Look at it right now, based off of this year.
TV Revenue
Right now the Fox TV contract is 12 years, $500 million. That breaks out to $4.16 million per school, per year.
If they expand to 12, contract moves to 12 years, $600 million. That breaks out to $4.16 million per school, per year.
That is a wash.
NCAA Tourney Credits
So far this year the Big East has earned 11 credits. That is $2,809,169 - which is $280,916 per school.
Add 2 teams and Dayton's 3 credits, now 14 credits. That is $3,575,306 - which is $297,942 per school.
TV wise - That is an additional $17,026 per school. Not a big deal when it comes to the big picture, but certainly adding to the pie.
However, if Xavier beats Arizona, that is another credit. If the $255,379 credit is split by 10, each school gets $25,537. If by 12 then $21,281. Again, not huge, but every credit earned is $4,256 less per school.
Overall the expansion is the same for TV, but for NCAA tourney credits, each school is losing $4,256 per credit, so you have to ensure that the new teams coming would need to make that up in tourney credits each and every year.
If they expand to 12, contract moves to 12 years, $600 million. That breaks out to $4.16 million per school, per year.
I heard of that in 2012, does that deal still hold true today by FOX?
Didn't Dayton earn 3 credits? I was under the impression the First Four games still count.
MU/Panther - yes, those are the numbers I went off of, and I am not sure that has changed.
Alan - You are correct and I have adjusted.
Goose85 - When the contract was signed the reports said the deal was 12 years, $500 million, but that the number "Could grow to $600 million if they expanded to 12 teams".
I have been in the minority here, opposing Wichita State, so I have kept quiet on the topic. I agree with the Presidents. I do not see the fit at all. Having lived in Wichita for several years, the people are fantastic. Great fans. They do support their team. I just do not see the fit with the university or with the other programs. Basketball has been more cold than hot over the years, as well.
One thing about this extension...is it an extension to keep Miller there, or to raise the price when he inevitably leaves? I don't see him staying at Dayton for the long run, at least as long as they are in the A-10. As we know all too well, signing a new extension is never a guarantee a guy will stick around.
At this point I like staying at 10. Who knows what happens to football conferences in 10 years.
Will schools like Texas get tired of making the same money as Iowa State / Kansas and go independent for football? Will other schools, like UConn, think they can make more money as an independent for football while playing all other sports in the Big East?
Will tv be as lucrative in 10 years as it is now? Who knows how we will be watching games in 10 years.
Seemed just a couple years ago I used my cell phone to make phone calls, my tv to watch games, and my computer to look up information on the web.
If you add Dayton and Richmond / Davidson to the Big East, does that make the Big East that much better a conference from a national perception improve?
Then what if in 5 years UConn wants in? Do we go to 13 teams, 14 teams, or more?
Unless it is an obvious no brainer of an add, I say stay at 10. I like knowing Georgetown, St. John's, Villanova, etc will be coming to Milwaukee every year.
I think it is a losing proposition to try to predict the future. Who knows if UConn drops football five or ten years from now. But are you really going to hold open a space just in case?
If IWB is correct and the BE can add two teams without effecting the per school value of the television contract, I think expansion should happen ASAP. If not, obviously that's a problem. But it still should be something worth exploring. Getting good schools into the conference is a good idea.
Scheduling with 12 would be interesting. Do you simply go with an unbalanced schedule, or try to do divisions? If you do two divisions of 6, do you do home and home in division and play the other division once each? It works great from a schedule perspective, but only 16 games per team. That would take the total number of games from 90 to 96, not a big addition. If you go unbalanced, you get 108 games. My guess is Fox would want the 18 game schedule regardless.
I don't think you meant it this way, but it kind of comes off as "since it won't negatively impact the conference's revenue stream let's add teams for the sake of adding teams." I get that it would possibly add a little additional revenue with more chances for tourney credits, more eyeballs, etc. But would the Big East brand really be helped by adding any of the previously mentioned teams (Dayton, SLU, Davidson)? My answer is maybe for Dayton and no for the others. And like Goose said, until that "maybe" is turned into a definite yes, why make the move?
I really don't see any one school or two schools being a must add, or any kind of consensus even on this board.
Some like Dayton, SLU, Davidson, Richmond, Wichita, etc. Need one east and one west. Now think that all 9 schools must agree. Very tough.
If there was one school that everyone wanted to bring on, like a UConn, I could see going with just 11 schools and still playing a round robin.
Does anyone know the actual length of the TV deal? I know 12 years, but is there a point where either party (Big East or Fox) can pull out or call for a renegotiation?
Because I have come to a conclusion about conferences and perceptions. People care more about what's at the top of a conference than what's at the bottom, so I think adding teams without subtracting from per school revenue makes a great deal of sense. Even that means adding a team like Richmond, if it means getting a team like Dayton.
If you want to compare the prospective school's bball budgets.... http://www.bbstate.com/info/teams-hoopsbudget
I guess we can just agree to disagree, but I really don't see that Dayton would enhance the national perception of the conference, or add to the prestige of the conference at the top.
In the past 10 years Dayton has made the NCAA tourney 3 times, and this year they were last four in and won a play in game in their own gym to make the first weekend. In the last 20 years they have been in the tourney 6 times. I think making the tourney 3 out of 10 years translates to getting more in tourney credits than they earn from the conference.
Dayton is great from a philosophical fit. Similar school in terms of religion, they invest in basketball, fervent fanbase, they may not be a major market, but DePaul has a major market and they suck.
I think Dayton is a great fit as a 12th team. Absolutely ideal in that they mesh well with the rest of the league and currently are performing at a high level. But I wouldn't bring Dayton in just for Dayton. If we did add UConn or VCU, I would say get Dayton as #12. If we found that ideal East Coast school that was a must-add, Dayton would be a great choice to be the Midwest school to balance that out. But bringing them in just because they're Dayton? That's not good enough for me.
I mostly agree. There are only 3 schools out there that could conceivably do both - add viewers to the FS1 numbers and enhance the conference's basketball reputation -- UCONN, Gonzaga and Notre Dame. Unfortunately, I don't see UCONN dropping football any time soon; Gonzaga can't work unless it's for basketball only and no other conference would take their other sports without hoops; Notre Dame belongs in our conference but as long as football drives the bus in college sports, they're staying put. Any of these three want to join and we go to 11 and keep the round robin format.
I don't see how any adding any of the other mentioned schools (in spite of Witchita State and Dayton's recent success) would add value to the conference.
The chance of UConn dropping football is the same as Marquette dropping basketball.
Okay...we all know this. Seriously, we all know this. I made a joke about it earlier in this thread. But the reason UConn is always used as an example is twofold: first, they have a long history with the Big East and thus make sense, and second, they are a perennial power and would be a no-brainer in terms of the pedigree of program if you could get them in.
We all know they have football. We all know that the league doesn't want programs with football. We all know that UConn isn't viable. They are used as an example, nothing more, nothing less.
Dayton adds nothing. Why go beyond 10? The coaches don't like playing two opponents only once. You won't get more teams in the tourney. The school does not add prestige to the conference. The school will not help you the next time you have to renegotiate the tv contract. Why would you add them? Did you notice that the top two RPI conferences (Big East and the Big 12) has 10 teams each. Less garbage at the bottom leads to higher RPI. I can't think of a single good reason to add Dayton.
To tie into another discussion, THIS is why I want Lavin gone from St John's. The guy sucks in March. Since arriving at St John's, he has 1 Big East Tourney win. That's on his home court! Also has a 5-game losing streak in the BET. Zero NCAA wins, one NIT win.
Having a good RPI is nice for seeding and bids, but when push comes to shove, I would rather have guys that win. Lavin doesn't do that and hasn't since he left Westwood.