Phantom Warrior
12-07-2015, 09:45 AM
Yes, I know, we have a game before meeting UW, but I've been thinking about the Warrior-Badger game. Some thoughts:
1. UW is, in some ways the mirror image of MU - no scholarship seniors on the roster, reliance on three freshmen among the top seven players, a couple of lousy performances, an apparent turn-around, individuals performing at a higher level than most anticipated, a bit of disappointment regarding performance by a talented returning veteran, and more.
2. A quick look at UW's top seven:
Hayes (15.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and 4.2 apg): Overall, somewhat disappointing, shooting only 36.3% from the field and only 27.3% on treys, along with some games when he was not a factor on the glass - hardly the type of stats one would expect from a player who made some pre-season A-A teams. But he has had double-doubles his last three games (18 and 12, 15 and 12, and 20 and 11). If he keeps that level of play going, he could make post-season A-A teams.
He obviously presents a challenge for MU. He is bigger and stronger than any of our 3s, and he is savvy. Sandy is probably our best bet to try to contain him, but I expect him to have an excellent game against us. If he's around 15-16 points and even 7-8 boards, I think we'll be o.k., but if he goes for 20 and 10, we are in trouble. If he also manages to set up his teammates for easy baskets, which he is capable of doing, it could be a long day.
Koenig (15.8 ppg, 2.7 apg): Koenig has been extremely inconsistent, which is why I think he has been viewed as somewhat disappointing - like Hayes has been - by many UW fans. His stats aren't bad - 43.5% from the field and 37.1% on treys, along with 90.5% from the line, but 2.7 apg for a point guard playing basically 37 mpg is pretty underwhelming. My guess, however, is that his outside shot will be on this Saturday. I just don't picture him having a bad game (a la Oklahoma) against us.
I figure Traci matches up with Koenig, and when Traci is out, Duane will draw that assignment. I don't think Haanif is a viable option. How well Traci and Duane can contain Koenig is, for me, one of the keys to the game.
Happ (10.8 ppg and 8.0 rpg): I've been extremely impressed by Happ; he is much better than I thought he would be, especially on the glass. He is shooting 51.4% from the field, and an impressive 85.2% from the line. His double-double against Syracuse (18 and 15) was a Grade A performance. but he has also had two other double-doubles, so he is certainly capable of doing that again against MU. He is prone to foul problems, not uncommon for someone playing his first year of D-1, and that could become an issue, especially if he is matched up with Henry, or even Haanif, who is quicker and very aggressive attacking the hoop.
I expect Wojo will put Luke on Happ because Happ is not a threat from 16-20 feet. His game is 15 feet and in. I am concerned about Luke drawing a couple of quick fouls guarding Happ because Happ is very aggressive, and he is more athletic than one might expect.
Vito Brown (10.0 ppg and 6.0 rpg): Brown has played much better than I expected. He can hit the mid-range jumper, and he can even knock down an occasional trey. His 91.7% free throw conversion rate is an indication of his touch. He is hitting only 40.7% of his field goals, however, so he is probably one of the guys we want shooting. I was surprised he played only 16 minutes against Temple. Not quite sure what that was all about, but I figure he'll get at least 25 minutes against us. The key is keeping him off the offensive glass.
I anticipate Henry matching up with Brown rather than Luke matching up with him. I think Henry's length could give him some issues. On the other end of the court Brown has, like Happ, been prone to some foul issues. He has fouled out of two games. If he has to defend Henry, that could happen again. For that matter, if he guards Luke, that could happen anyway.
Zak Showalter (8.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg): Showalter has been as big a surprise to me as Brown has been, especially his ability to rebound. He had seven boards against Georgetown and 6 against both VCU and Syracuse. His outside shooting has been decent (32.3%), and he has been a remarkable 89.5% from the free throw line. His has basically taken over a lot of Gasser's roles, including drawing charges. Still, he is at best UW's fourth option on offense, but if he can get to double digits and make a couple of treys, he can be a difference-maker in this game.
I think Haanif will start out on Showalter, but Duane, and maybe JJ, will cover him as well. It will be tempting to leave Showalter to help out on Hayes and Koenig but we can't leave him open to take the uncontested trey because he can knock it down.
Bench: Thomas and Iverson seem to be the primary reserves, though Iverson is reportedly having back issues. Neither is much of an offensive threat as they are both around 40% from the field and 50% from the line, but they are both athletic and active. It will be interesting to see if Thomas gets more minutes than Brown which is what happened against Temple.
Obviously two major issues for MU are not letting UW get many open treys and keeping the Badgers off the offensive glass. The latter has been a weakness for MU all year.
Keeping our turnovers down and creating some turnovers for transition opportunities is another key (actually two more keys).
But I think the biggest key to this game could be the zebras. If Luke or Henry gets in foul trouble, MU is in trouble. If Happ and Brown have foul issues and have to sit, big advantage for MU.
The other critical factor will be tempo. MU wants a fast-paced game, and UW will want to slow the pace. Whichever team can impose its will on the other regarding tempo will likely win. At least, that's my take on this game.
Prediction: this game will not be decided until the last possession or two.
1. UW is, in some ways the mirror image of MU - no scholarship seniors on the roster, reliance on three freshmen among the top seven players, a couple of lousy performances, an apparent turn-around, individuals performing at a higher level than most anticipated, a bit of disappointment regarding performance by a talented returning veteran, and more.
2. A quick look at UW's top seven:
Hayes (15.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and 4.2 apg): Overall, somewhat disappointing, shooting only 36.3% from the field and only 27.3% on treys, along with some games when he was not a factor on the glass - hardly the type of stats one would expect from a player who made some pre-season A-A teams. But he has had double-doubles his last three games (18 and 12, 15 and 12, and 20 and 11). If he keeps that level of play going, he could make post-season A-A teams.
He obviously presents a challenge for MU. He is bigger and stronger than any of our 3s, and he is savvy. Sandy is probably our best bet to try to contain him, but I expect him to have an excellent game against us. If he's around 15-16 points and even 7-8 boards, I think we'll be o.k., but if he goes for 20 and 10, we are in trouble. If he also manages to set up his teammates for easy baskets, which he is capable of doing, it could be a long day.
Koenig (15.8 ppg, 2.7 apg): Koenig has been extremely inconsistent, which is why I think he has been viewed as somewhat disappointing - like Hayes has been - by many UW fans. His stats aren't bad - 43.5% from the field and 37.1% on treys, along with 90.5% from the line, but 2.7 apg for a point guard playing basically 37 mpg is pretty underwhelming. My guess, however, is that his outside shot will be on this Saturday. I just don't picture him having a bad game (a la Oklahoma) against us.
I figure Traci matches up with Koenig, and when Traci is out, Duane will draw that assignment. I don't think Haanif is a viable option. How well Traci and Duane can contain Koenig is, for me, one of the keys to the game.
Happ (10.8 ppg and 8.0 rpg): I've been extremely impressed by Happ; he is much better than I thought he would be, especially on the glass. He is shooting 51.4% from the field, and an impressive 85.2% from the line. His double-double against Syracuse (18 and 15) was a Grade A performance. but he has also had two other double-doubles, so he is certainly capable of doing that again against MU. He is prone to foul problems, not uncommon for someone playing his first year of D-1, and that could become an issue, especially if he is matched up with Henry, or even Haanif, who is quicker and very aggressive attacking the hoop.
I expect Wojo will put Luke on Happ because Happ is not a threat from 16-20 feet. His game is 15 feet and in. I am concerned about Luke drawing a couple of quick fouls guarding Happ because Happ is very aggressive, and he is more athletic than one might expect.
Vito Brown (10.0 ppg and 6.0 rpg): Brown has played much better than I expected. He can hit the mid-range jumper, and he can even knock down an occasional trey. His 91.7% free throw conversion rate is an indication of his touch. He is hitting only 40.7% of his field goals, however, so he is probably one of the guys we want shooting. I was surprised he played only 16 minutes against Temple. Not quite sure what that was all about, but I figure he'll get at least 25 minutes against us. The key is keeping him off the offensive glass.
I anticipate Henry matching up with Brown rather than Luke matching up with him. I think Henry's length could give him some issues. On the other end of the court Brown has, like Happ, been prone to some foul issues. He has fouled out of two games. If he has to defend Henry, that could happen again. For that matter, if he guards Luke, that could happen anyway.
Zak Showalter (8.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg): Showalter has been as big a surprise to me as Brown has been, especially his ability to rebound. He had seven boards against Georgetown and 6 against both VCU and Syracuse. His outside shooting has been decent (32.3%), and he has been a remarkable 89.5% from the free throw line. His has basically taken over a lot of Gasser's roles, including drawing charges. Still, he is at best UW's fourth option on offense, but if he can get to double digits and make a couple of treys, he can be a difference-maker in this game.
I think Haanif will start out on Showalter, but Duane, and maybe JJ, will cover him as well. It will be tempting to leave Showalter to help out on Hayes and Koenig but we can't leave him open to take the uncontested trey because he can knock it down.
Bench: Thomas and Iverson seem to be the primary reserves, though Iverson is reportedly having back issues. Neither is much of an offensive threat as they are both around 40% from the field and 50% from the line, but they are both athletic and active. It will be interesting to see if Thomas gets more minutes than Brown which is what happened against Temple.
Obviously two major issues for MU are not letting UW get many open treys and keeping the Badgers off the offensive glass. The latter has been a weakness for MU all year.
Keeping our turnovers down and creating some turnovers for transition opportunities is another key (actually two more keys).
But I think the biggest key to this game could be the zebras. If Luke or Henry gets in foul trouble, MU is in trouble. If Happ and Brown have foul issues and have to sit, big advantage for MU.
The other critical factor will be tempo. MU wants a fast-paced game, and UW will want to slow the pace. Whichever team can impose its will on the other regarding tempo will likely win. At least, that's my take on this game.
Prediction: this game will not be decided until the last possession or two.