Juan - Comparison Stats

[Phantom Warrior]

For the five conference games so far, Juan has scored 44 points (8.8 ppg) and grabbed 33 rebounds (6.6 rpg). He is averaging 34.4 mpg in those five games.

Last year Juan averaged 13.5 mpg, so he is getting roughly 2.5 times as many mpg this year. Last year Juan averaged 3.2 ppg in those 13.5 mpg. Extrapolated to this year's 34.4 mpg in league play, that would come to 8.2 ppg. That's not much of a difference in terms of point productivity, especially when you consider that last year we had guys like Davante and Jamil who were looked at as higher-priority scoring options.

Then there is rebounding. In the five conference games to date Juan has grabbed 33 boards, an average of 6.6 rpg in his 34.4 mpg. That seems pretty decent. It comes to 1 rebound every 5.2 minutes.

But last year Juan averaged 3.3 rpg in 13.5 mpg. Extrapolated to 34.4 mpg, that would come to 8.4 rpg. Looked at from another perspective, last year Juan grabbed 1 rebound every 4.1 minutes. In short, he was a more productive, more effective rebounder last year. The problem is we need him to be an efficient rebounder even more this year than we did last year.

Juan's shooting has improved. He is shooting 46% this year from the field compared to 38% last year. His free throw shooting in our five league games (10 of 14 for 71%) is roughly the same as it was a year ago (73%).

In terms of turnovers, Juan's assist/turnover ratio so far in league play is 1 assist/2.8 turnovers, which is horrible. A year ago he averaged 1.0 assists/1.0 turnovers.

Bottom line: there is really very little difference in Juan's scoring on a per minute basis this year compared to last, and his rebounding is actually down from a year ago. He is shooting a higher percentage from the field, but he is turning the ball over at an alarming rate this year.

I like Juan. In fact I love players who play with his level of energy and hustle, and there is no question he has become a vocal leader on the court.

But his improved stats in terms of ppg and rpg are misleading. They are due to increased mpg due to the graduations of Davante, Jamil, and Chris, as well as the incredible lack of production from Taylor this season. The reality is we are seeing pretty much the same player we saw a year ago. We are just seeing more of him because Wojo has no alternative. In fact, in two crucial areas - rebounding and turnovers - Juan was better as a junior.

This post is not intended to rank on Juan. He is what he is. He is a valuable member of the team, and he would be an asset to any program because of who he is as a person and because of his non-stop motor on the court. But he is not a Big East caliber starter. I would say that on the overwhelming majority of other BE teams, he would see maybe 15-20 mpg off the bench.

The problem for us as fans is that our standards of what constitutes a Big East caliber starter have declined the past two years.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Few things, im not suggesting that Juan is playing great, but how can you take his numbers from all of last year, and compare them to only Conference play this year, for an apples to apples comparison you really need to compare his Conference numbers from last year, compared to conference numbers from this year or the whole season to the whole season to date... It's a bit slanted and looks like you are trying to slam him.

Also, when taking numbers and extrapolating them its a bit miss leading, because for instance, a walk on could come on in the last minute of every game in garbage time, hit a bunny layup and score 2 points in 1 minute, you could then extrapolate that and say, well geez, if we played him 40 minutes a game he would average 80 points a game... Things play into games like fatigue and when those 13 minutes a game were played by Juan last year and how he scored those points. Overall to me it's blatantly obvious he has improved.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

also, looking at the full season, Juan is averaging 10.4 PPG in 32.4 mpg 6.7 RPG, and an assist to turnover ratio of just under 1 to 1...



2014-15 MPG: 32.4 FG%: .519 3P%: .435 FT%: .557 RPG: 6.7 APG: 2.3 TO: 2.7 PPG: 10.5


2013-14 MPG: 13.5 FG%: .378. 3P%: .192 FT%: .731 RPG: 3.3 APG:1.0 TO:1.0. PPG: 3.2

[Mucrisco]

Plus, you have to take into account who he is playing with. This year, Juan often times has to box out the other team's best rebounder. With an undersized team, many coaches will tell a player that their job is only to box out the other teams' bigs. Then, it's up to the other guys, especially the guards to clean up the rebounds. Adding to that is that Juan's role on offense is different this year. He is asked to be more of a lead player. He has to be more aggressive. Thus, you have more turnovers. Stats help paint the picture. They don't tell the story. He is a Big East Caliber starter. You need guys like Juan out there. Picture Darvin Ham with the Big Three. Scott Williams. You don't need everybody to be a scorer or a stat stuffer. You need the glue guys for team chemistry. You need unselfish players that just want to win. The problem this year is that the role players are the most experienced and hardest working guys on the team. When our stars are the most experienced and hardest working, then you have success.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

the main issue I have is everyone wants to pin this on one guy. The reality is that the team as a whole is a bunch of supporting cast players, we don't have that one star that consistently shows up every night and scores and can take over a game in the clutch, sure Carlino has shown flashes, but he has also been really inconsistent. We need a DJO, Crowder, Jimmy Butler, Wes Matthews, Jerel McNeal, or even a Vander Blue.

Carlino is too reliant on the 3 ball, if he isn't on, he isn't nearly as effective. Fisher is good, but he has foul issues and it's harder for a big to dominate a game in a guards game. JJJ plays horrible defense and is erratic on offense, Duane is coming along, and I think when he can start hitting the 3 ball more consistently will be our best scorer going forward, but just isn't there yet. In the end, we just are short that rock star.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

the main issue I have is everyone wants to pin this on one guy. The reality is that the team as a whole is a bunch of supporting cast players, we don't have that one star that consistently shows up every night and scores and can take over a game in the clutch, sure Carlino has shown flashes, but he has also been really inconsistent. We need a DJO, Crowder, Jimmy Butler, Wes Matthews, Jerel McNeal, or even a Vander Blue.

Carlino is too reliant on the 3 ball, if he isn't nearly as effective. Fisher is good, but he has foul issues and it's harder for a big to dominate a game in a guards game. JJJ plays horrible defense as is erratic on offense, Duane is coming along, and I think when he can start hitting the 3 ball more consistently will be our best scorer going forward, but just isn't there yet. In the end, we just are short that rock star.

I posted something similar to this somewhere this morning. If Carlino was a third scoring option, if Derrick was surrounded by more offensive talent, and if Juan was a sixth man, they would all be fantastic. But that's not what we have, so they need to play over their heads for us to compete, and while they've done that, sometimes it still isn't enough.

[Phantom Warrior]

I agree it would be more valid to compare conference stats with last year's conference stats, but I was too lazy to go back and look at all 18 games and calculate all Juan's stats.

I also agree extrapolation has limitations, but I do think it is interesting - and telling - to extrapolate at times - though obviously not the walk-on example that was used.

As far as placing all the onus on one player - Juan - that is not what I was trying to do. All eight players on the team are responsible for our record.

I just do not think that Juan has played that much better this season than last. I pretty much see the same Juan. He is less timid about shooting than he was last year. That is the main difference I've noticed except that he is more efficient in terms of shooting percentage.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Actually, wouldn't this indicate Juan has been more effective? Juan's numbers last year were mostly built in the non-conference. 6 of the 9 times he had 6+ rebounds last year were in non-con games. His 5 highest scoring games (8+) were all in non-con games. 9 of his 12 most offensively efficient performances (100+) were in non-con. So if he's putting up comparable numbers against conference foes, I'd say that's an improvement.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Juan Vs Conference Opponents Last Year:

17 Games: 11 MPG, 24.3% FG%, 0% 3FG%, 62.5% FT%, 2.23 RPG, 1:1 Assist to Turnover ratio, 1.3 PPG

THIS YEAR:

5 Games: 34.4 MPG, 45.7% FG%, 28.6% 3FG%, 71.4% FT%, 6.6 RPG, 1:3 assist to turnover ratio, 8.8 PPG

Now you can try and extrapolate things, but I think that's misleading as Juan averaged 11 MPG, but of those 17 games he actually only went over 11 mins 7 times... So for fun i singled out the 5 games that Juan averaged over 15 MPG, His stats are below and may be a better comparison:

5 Games: 19.2 MPG, 33.3% FG%, 0% 3FG%, 50% FT%, 4.6 RPG, 1:1 assist to turnover ratio, 3.2 PPG

[Markedman]

the main issue I have is everyone wants to pin this on one guy. The reality is that the team as a whole is a bunch of supporting cast players, we don't have that one star that consistently shows up every night and scores and can take over a game in the clutch, sure Carlino has shown flashes, but he has also been really inconsistent. We need a DJO, Crowder, Jimmy Butler, Wes Matthews, Jerel McNeal, or even a Vander Blue.

Carlino is too reliant on the 3 ball, if he isn't on, he isn't nearly as effective. Fisher is good, but he has foul issues and it's harder for a big to dominate a game in a guards game. JJJ plays horrible defense and is erratic on offense, Duane is coming along, and I think when he can start hitting the 3 ball more consistently will be our best scorer going forward, but just isn't there yet. In the end, we just are short that rock star.


Actually to be really good you need more then 1......to think we had all of those bolded guys on the same team 1 year.....I would throw in Gardner as well who when paired with a legitimate offensive perimeter guy or 2 was very hard to guard in the post.

ps. When looking at Juan I think it should also be noted that the Big East is significantly better this season compared to last.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Actually to be really good you need more then 1......to think we had all of those bolded guys on the same team 1 year.....I would throw in Gardner as well who when paired with a legitimate offensive perimeter guy or 2 was very hard to guard in the post.

ps. When looking at Juan I think it should also be noted that the Big East is significantly better this season compared to last.

Agreed. We are two players short. Add a Wes Matthews/Jerel McNeal, a Jimmy Butler/Lazar Hayward, a Jae Crowder/DJO, or a Vander Blue/Jamil Wilson type tandem to this team and they'd be on par with what we've seen in the past decade. But of those combos, 7/8 have been on NBA rosters and all were upperclassmen together. I'm pretty sure we don't have a single upperclassmen NBA player this year.