Big East and the NCAA Tournament

[warriorfan4life]

Here is what I think the nine Big East teams that harbor tourney hopes still need to finish in conference to make the NCAA's:

Marquette, Creighton, Xavier: 11-7
Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's: 10-8
Villanova, Butler (that win over UNC will look real good come Selection Sunday): 9-9

I do not expect Creighton to finish anywhere near 11-7, and objectively have a tough time seeing the good guys finish 11-7 either, but feasibly see everyone else meet those benchmarks. I could see DePaul pulling a TCU in the Big 12 last year and finishing 0 for conference play, and Creighton play the role of Texas Tech and finish 6-12 in conference play.

Edit: Here is a rough projection

1. Villanova 14-4
2. Georgetown 12-6
3. Xavier 11-7
T4. Providence 10-8
T4. St. John's 10-8
T4. Seton Hall 10-8
7. Butler 9-9
8. Marquette 8-10
9. Creighton 6-12
10. DePaul 0-18

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I think you have Xavier too high, I don't think they will make it either... Obviously this is a way early projection, but I think the tournament teams out of the Big East (assuming no significant injuries) will be Nova, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, and Butler... That's a great year for this league.

[MU/Panther]

DePaul will not go winless in the Big East. I'm worried they might start 1-0.

[pbiflyer]

Providence looked good last night, albeit against a highly overrated Miami team.

[MU/Panther]

Providence looked good last night, albeit against a highly overrated Miami team. Hard to say what Miami is. That win at Florida looks pretty good.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Here's my projection:

1. Villanova 15-3
2. Georgetown 12-6
3. St. John's 10-8
4. Butler 10-8
5. Marquette 10-8
6. Providence 9-9
7. Seton Hall 8-10
8. Creighton 7-11
9. Xavier 7-11
10. DePaul 2-16

That would give teams the following resumes going into the Big East Tournament:

Locks

Villanova 28-3 (15-3), RPI 5, SOS 49
Georgetown 20-9 (12-6), RPI 18, SOS 7
St. John's 20-10 (10-8), RPI 27, SOS 16
Butler 20-11 (10-8), RPI 36, SOS 40

Bubble

Providence 19-12 (9-9), RPI 39, SOS 27
Marquette 18-12 (10-8), RPI 43, SOS 23
Seton Hall 18-12 (8-10), RPI 47, SOS 40
Xavier 17-14 (7-11), RPI 60, SOS 21

Outside Looking In

Creighton 16-15 (7-11), RPI 111, SOS 67
DePaul 8-22 (2-16), RPI 244, SOS 73

If this played out, it would give the league a very good chance at 7 bids to the tournament. If this all played out, Xavier would have a chance to make it 8 if they could beat Creighton and Villanova to get to the semis, while Seton Hall might need wins over DePaul and Georgetown to really feel safe on Selection Sunday. Butler/Marquette and St. John's/Providence would also be huge games at MSG with two teams maybe needing one more win to really feel safe.

Say this did play out, what would make the Big East Tourney really exciting is literally every game could have NCAA ramifications.

EDIT: Also, I know I'm pretty down on Xavier. They haven't convinced me yet. While they did a great job of stacking their schedule with the mid-level teams that help you when you win without high risk of losing, the fact is they did lose three games they shouldn't have lost. Long Beach State and Auburn could look pretty bad come Selection Sunday. It's possible Stephen F Austin could be their only top-100 non-conference win if they aren't able to knock off Cincinnati in February.

[Markedman]

I think Providence is better then you think and will win at least 10 or 11 games in conference.

I see Nova, GT, ST Johns and Providence as the top 4 followed by Butler.

[Markedman]

DePaul will not go winless in the Big East. I'm worried they might start 1-0.

DePaul has lost 5 games in a row by an average of 17 points a game. None of the teams that beat them were ranked.

Anybody can beat anybody but if MU loses to DePaul they will have nobody to blame but themselves....DePaul has imploded...After showing some promise with the win over Stanford they are back to being the same old bad team they have been for what seems like 10 years now

[Markedman]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein · 29s29 seconds ago
Seton Hall freshman Isaiah Whitehead is out a few weeks with a stress fracture, per his twitter page. Big loss for Pirates. #SHUBB

[Markedman]

DePaul loses again.....this time to Loyola Marymount..RPI 261

[warriorfan4life]

I hope DePaul at least keeps Purnell employed through our New Years Eve game. Marquette threw away our 2010 game at the Allstate Arena against them, but they played with a renewed effort under interim coach Tracy Webster in that game (after basically giving up on Coach Wainwright).

Understand the skepticism with my Xavier pick, but I still really like their roster and believe they have the highest ceiling of anyone outside of Nova and maybe Georgetown in the conference. They have been mediocre against a terrible out of conference schedule, doing nothing away from home and not having tested themselves against a surefire NCAA team. Still, I think they mostly meet their potential and finish strong enough to sneak into the NCAA's (and they will have to finish high in the league given that rubbish of a non-conference schedule). They need to improve their defense, but are really good on offense and I believe will outscore enough teams to win the majority of nights.

The Whitehead injury likely derails Hall's strong start to the season. Khadeen Carrington is a nice looking player for the future, but is best served now in his current 6th-7th man role (as is the case for most non-elite recruits). Their start to conference is not horribly tough, but some of those likely home wins may now be toss-up games or narrow losses that ultimately may cost the Hall a tourney bid (though like Marquette, they can potentially present the case of two different teams and the results of each teams). Still, I would flip at least 1-2 of Hall's wins to losses now.

[Goose85]

For MU to have a .500 or better Big East season, a win in Chicago tomorrow is a must.

To go 10-8 or 11-7 in conference play you have to sweep a few teams - starting with DePaul.
Get out of the gate with a big win and carry that momentum over to Saturday with a Providence win.

DePaul has been terrible, and we are playing very well right now.

Fischer will get Hamilton frustrated and in foul trouble. Just keep Garrett in check and good things will happen.

I am looking forward to a fun, and very challenging Big East Conference season.

[Nukem2]

For MU to have a .500 or better Big East season, a win in Chicago tomorrow is a must.

To go 10-8 or 11-7 in conference play you have to sweep a few teams - starting with DePaul.
Get out of the gate with a big win and carry that momentum over to Saturday with a Providence win.

DePaul has been terrible, and we are playing very well right now.

Fischer will get Hamilton frustrated and in foul trouble. Just keep Garrett in check and good things will happen.

I am looking forward to a fun, and very challenging Big East Conference season.Not only sweep some teams, but also avoid being swept. Some possibilities come to mind: Nova, G-Town, SJU, Providence and even Butler. A .500 season itself is going to be a huge challenge.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

The most important thing is protecting home court. If we can win 7-8 games at home a league record above .500 is realistic. Those games are also the ones that most help our RPI. Protect home court, steal 2-3 away, go dancing.

[MUMac]

The most important thing is protecting home court. If we can win 7-8 games at home a league record above .500 is realistic. Those games are also the ones that most help our RPI. Protect home court, steal 2-3 away, go dancing.

Damn, now all I have is Dickie Simpkins saying "A D T, Protect your House" running through my head, over and over and over ... Yuk