A Random Thought

[Phantom Warrior]

Just wondering about shot distribution for this coming season. Consider.

Assuming that Carlino starts at point guard ahead of Derrick, that means we will be moving from a player who averaged 1 shot per 6.3 minutes in 30.8 mpg to a player who averaged 1 shot per 2.1 minutes. That would be quite a significant difference in the number/percentage of shots taken by the point guard.

Let's also assume that Mayo's minutes increase from 23.8 mpg to around 30 mpg, and that he plays primarily at the 2. Instead of Thomas, who averaged 1 shot per 4.6 minutes, which is extremely low for a starting off guard, we'd have Mayo, who averaged 1 shot per 3.1 minutes. That's a significant change as well.

In short, we will likely have two guards who like to pull the trigger and are pretty much volume shooters as opposed to a starting guard tandem that probably took fewer shots per 30 minutes than any other starting guard tandem in the country last year.

Now, let's take it a step further. If we assume that Burton's mpg will increase significantly, and that he will pick up a great deal of Jamil's minutes, think about this. Jamil averaged 1 shot per 2.9 minutes in about 29 mpg, which is probably in the normal range for a starting forward. But contrast that figure with Burton's 1 shot per 2.2 minutes in only 12.6 mpg. If DB averages 25 mpg, which seems likely, that would come to an awful lot of shots if he keeps up that rate.

My point is that there is only one ball, and we have three players who, in the past, like to jack up shots. Can all three co-exist when on the court together? And, what does this mean for the other two players on the court - Fischer, Taylor, and Johnson, in particular? Will they be lucky to even touch the ball?

One thing I think is a given. We definitely won't see a team whose starting back court averaged a combined 11.3 shots per game in a combined 60-61 mpg. I'll be surprised if between them Carlino and Mayo don't at least double that total in fewer mpg.

I also think one of Wojo's prime challenges will be to make sure Fischer and Taylor get a fair share of touches and shots.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

Great post and definitely a concern of mine as well. I have to think that each of these guys shot per minute numbers naturally get reduced for no other reason than they will be playing with other volume scorers and there is only one ball. How Wojo optimizes these touches and scoring opportunities for these guys is certainly up for debate and a big challenge ahead for him. I also agree that we can't completely ignore the low block and hopefully are able to still get some productivity out of that spot despite the chucking tendencies of some of our guards. If I had to guess (and this would also be my preference) I would say Burton and Mayo end up leading us in shots and ppg with Carlino a distant 3rd.

[Goose85]

Carlino can really shoot the long ball, while Mayo can shoot it and also put it on the ground and go to the hole. Both should open things up for Burton getting space going through the lane. Hopefully Mayo and Burton can drive and dish to either Fischer / Taylor, or back outside to Carlino spotting up at the 3 line. Moving the ball with this group will be a key.

I'm not as worried about shoot distribution in a Carlino, Mayo, Burton, Anderson/Taylor/Fischer lineup as I am about defense and ball handling.

A good quick 3 guard lineup may be tough for Carlino / Mayo / Burton to stop.

[TheSultan]

It's just so hard for me to predict anything about what this next year is going to be like since I have no idea what Wojo is going to try to accomplish with this team. I also don't know what was expected of Carlino at BYU vis-a-vis what will be expected of him here.

Really when I even think about making playing time predictions, there seem to be so many unknown variables that it is hard for me to think it through.

[Nukem2]

With a new staff, new system, roster turnover, etc., it's really hard to project this team. Who knows how the staff will evaluate individual players within the new system or how individual players will do in the new system. I'm just going to let things play out without that dreaded "expectations" word. Far different from Buzz's first season when TC left him a loaded and very experienced roster.

[ChitownAl]

Just wondering about shot distribution for this coming season. Consider.

Assuming that Carlino starts at point guard ahead of Derrick, that means we will be moving from a player who averaged 1 shot per 6.3 minutes in 30.8 mpg to a player who averaged 1 shot per 2.1 minutes. That would be quite a significant difference in the number/percentage of shots taken by the point guard.

Let's also assume that Mayo's minutes increase from 23.8 mpg to around 30 mpg, and that he plays primarily at the 2. Instead of Thomas, who averaged 1 shot per 4.6 minutes, which is extremely low for a starting off guard, we'd have Mayo, who averaged 1 shot per 3.1 minutes. That's a significant change as well.

In short, we will likely have two guards who like to pull the trigger and are pretty much volume shooters as opposed to a starting guard tandem that probably took fewer shots per 30 minutes than any other starting guard tandem in the country last year.

Now, let's take it a step further. If we assume that Burton's mpg will increase significantly, and that he will pick up a great deal of Jamil's minutes, think about this. Jamil averaged 1 shot per 2.9 minutes in about 29 mpg, which is probably in the normal range for a starting forward. But contrast that figure with Burton's 1 shot per 2.2 minutes in only 12.6 mpg. If DB averages 25 mpg, which seems likely, that would come to an awful lot of shots if he keeps up that rate.

My point is that there is only one ball, and we have three players who, in the past, like to jack up shots. Can all three co-exist when on the court together? And, what does this mean for the other two players on the court - Fischer, Taylor, and Johnson, in particular? Will they be lucky to even touch the ball?

One thing I think is a given. We definitely won't see a team whose starting back court averaged a combined 11.3 shots per game in a combined 60-61 mpg. I'll be surprised if between them Carlino and Mayo don't at least double that total in fewer mpg.

I also think one of Wojo's prime challenges will be to make sure Fischer and Taylor get a fair share of touches and shots.

Silver: My thought may not totally alleviate the "shot sharing" situation you aptly describe, but factor it in the MU offense algebraic equation and it may help: MU may play considerably more uptempo this season compared to last year under William's "slim margin of error O philosophy." Going more uptempo = more avg. possessions per game = more shots for the team to spread around.

Otherwise, my concern is Carlino (and I am happy that he is here) re his past play @ BYU. Why was he benched?... was he a black hole instead of a facilitator? Second concern: Senioritis Selfishness. Carlino and Mayo will probably both be looking for a job playing BB professionally post MU, so they will want to put up strong #s to enhance their future employment opportunities, and need shots to do that.

Good topic Silver, ​Good thinking.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

Chitown - you picked up a bit on my observations of Silver's posts since the Carlino transfer - it seems as though Silver (and you and probably others) are very concerned about Carlino being a shoot first pg based on his tenure at BYU. Silver - is this an accurate comment?

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I wonder how much Carlino's shooting was a product of system and expectations. The fans, and maybe even Dave Rose, expected him to step into Jimmer's role without missing a beat. They gave him a lot of leeway his first two years. I can see it being hard to be asked to do less when you are becoming an upperclassman and planning to do more.

Hopefully with an experienced guard alongside him in Mayo and a coach that was never the shoot-first type when he played the point, he'll tone the shooting down a bit and pick his spots better. If not, it's still only a year If he is a black hole and we either go to one of our other point guards or this year just never comes together as we hope, isn't that somewhat always the expectation under a new regime?

[Phantom Warrior]

There have been a few point guards who are volume shooters. As a senior Travis averaged 1 shot per 2.5 minutes, and DJ did the same his freshman year. Carlino's rate is higher than either of those MU studs.

I realize BYU's offense last year was more up tempo than MU's. Still, I have concerns about a point guard who shoots every 2.1 or 2.2 minutes.

(I do have greater concerns about a point guard who shoots every 6.3 minutes.)

[JohnnyRev]

I can see the concern based on BYU statistics, but the Carlino I watched at the ProAm was not a ball hog, even though others on this team were hogs. I saw a mature player who didn't force anything, patiently watched and/or positioned himself to make a play even when others were hogging the ball, who had superior court sense to spot the open teammate and get him the ball, who more than once assisted a trailing teammate on the break instead of taking it in himself or lobbed a dunk opportunity to another. Yet despite appearing to hold back and feed others, he still scored 36 points in that game. He also showed fine form and good scoring off three pointers when he was open and others were not.