Burton - Some Perspective

[Phantom Warrior]

During conference play (19 games including tournament), Deonte played double-digit minutes in 11 games, his most minutes in the tournament game against Xavier (24) and the first conference game against Creighton (20). Those are the only two times he got 20 or more minutes.

During those 11 games, Deonte averaged 16.1 mpg.

During those 16.1 minutes, he averaged 11.1 ppg.

An average of 11.1 ppg would have put him in the Top 25 (24th) in scoring in the conference.

Extrapolated to 25 mpg, that would come to 17.3 ppg, which would have been tied for 6th in the conference behind McDermott (33.7 mpg), Cotton (41.9 mpg), Christon (36.8 mpg), Starks (37.4 mpg), Smith-Rivera (37.0 mpg), Young (35.3 mpg), and tied him with Harrison (35.1 mpg).

Extrapolated to 30 mpg, DB's ppg would have been 20.6 ppg, which would have ranked 3rd in the conference behind only McDermott and Cotton.

(DB needs to improve his conditioning, but I think 25 mpg next year is reasonable and 30 mpg is not out of the question.)

In those 11 games, DB shot 50% from the field (48 of 96) and made 4 of 6 trey attempts.

In those 11 games - 16.1 mpg - DB averaged 3.3 rpg.

Extrapolated to 25 mpg, that would come to 4.7 rpg, not earth-shattering, but not terrible either.

Bottom line: I can very easily envision DB averaging at least 25 mpg next year and averaging 15-16 ppg and 5-6 rpg. If we are able to get out in transition, his ppg could even be higher, and if he can approach 30 mpg, he could average 18-20 ppg and 6-7 rpg. That many mpg will depend on what shape he is in and whether or not he can avoid foul problems. But if he can do both, he could be one of the top half dozen scorers in the league next year.

[CaribouJim]

I could see him playing 30+ minutes next year easy. I told Father Dan's Camera last night at the banquet that I would not be surprised if he reaches All-American status before he is done at MU which would be first MU player since Jerel's 2nd team AP AA team in '09.

EDIT: Whoops - forgot about Jae being a 2nd team AA as well in '12.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I love Burton, and agree that he has legitimate All-American potential. He's one of those guys that seems likely to stay 4 years because of his size, but has all the talent in the world.

I would, however, caution especially MU fans when it comes to trying to extrapolate numbers based on a small sample size. That's the kind of logic that got McIlvaine his massive contract. That whole "If he can average 3 blocks in 15 minutes, imagine what he'll do in 40 minutes" logic didn't work out so well ;)

[MayorBeluga]

I would, however, caution especially MU fans when it comes to trying to extrapolate numbers based on a small sample size. That's the kind of logic that got McIlvaine his massive contract. That whole "If he can average 3 blocks in 15 minutes, imagine what he'll do in 40 minutes" logic didn't work out so well ;)

Mac might disagree on it not working out. :cool:

[CaribouJim]

I love Burton, and agree that he has legitimate All-American potential. He's one of those guys that seems likely to stay 4 years because of his size, but has all the talent in the world.

I would, however, caution especially MU fans when it comes to trying to extrapolate numbers based on a small sample size. That's the kind of logic that got McIlvaine his massive contract. That whole "If he can average 3 blocks in 15 minutes, imagine what he'll do in 40 minutes" logic didn't work out so well ;)

Maybe, maybe not. In any event, he was as vastly, vastly underutilized this past season...period...end of discussion.

[2013UnleashTheBeast]

I love Burton, and agree that he has legitimate All-American potential. He's one of those guys that seems likely to stay 4 years because of his size, but has all the talent in the world.

I would, however, caution especially MU fans when it comes to trying to extrapolate numbers based on a small sample size. That's the kind of logic that got McIlvaine his massive contract. That whole "If he can average 3 blocks in 15 minutes, imagine what he'll do in 40 minutes" logic didn't work out so well ;)

See: The Xavier BET game. 23 points in 24 minutes. For some reason he got the modified Dawson @Providence treatment in that game. I was sitting less than 10 rows back at MSG bewildered every time he hit the bench. Should have played 30+ that night. Guy's a scoring machine with a natural affinity for steals & blocks and was criminally underused on a team starved for offensive production, creativity & open court play. Can't wait to see what he can do under the new regime.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Mac might disagree on it not working out. :cool:

Touche, sir, touche. :D

[BLT]

Additionally, per 40 minutes, Burton was also third in the league, just behind Gardner. More so, MU had three players in the Top 13...yet none were MU starters. Perplexing for sure.

Good stuff.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/points40?conf=big-east&games=1

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

How does Burton adjust to being the guy next year? Teams will be looking at him and preparing for him much more next year... I think Burton will get 13-16 ppg, but the key is who else will step up? Can Mayo be more consistent? Who will help inside until Fischer gets on board? We will finally see what Duane Wilson brings to the table, which I think will disappoint as expectations are way too high for a kid with 0 minutes played at this level (note: I think he will be a real good 4 year player), how do Dawson, and JJJ progress?

Lots of unknowns for next year, overall I think it will be similar to last year although I think we make the NIT after all is said and done.

[CaribouJim]

Additionally, per 40 minutes, Burton was also third in the league, just behind Gardner. More so, MU had three players in the Top 13...yet none were MU starters. Perplexing for sure.

Good stuff.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/points40?conf=big-east&games=1

...and Todd at #13.

[LittleMurs]

How does Burton adjust to being the guy next year? Teams will be looking at him and preparing for him much more next year... I think Burton will get 13-16 ppg, but the key is who else will step up? Can Mayo be more consistent? Who will help inside until Fischer gets on board? We will finally see what Duane Wilson brings to the table, which I think will disappoint as expectations are way too high for a kid with 0 minutes played at this level (note: I think he will be a real good 4 year player), how do Dawson, and JJJ progress?

Lots of unknowns for next year, overall I think it will be similar to last year although I think we make the NIT after all is said and done.


So you think that next year we sneak into the NIT. Ouch. If I believed that, I think that I'd have to take a year off. I guess even another 17-15 year would be worth seeing to see how the young talent develops over the course of the year, and how Wojo handles his first year as a HC.

[Phantom Warrior]

More important than points per 40 minutes is overall offensive efficiency. Not sure why Deonte isn't listed. For conference games only look at where MU players ranks.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/offensive_rating_pct?games=2&conf=big-east&season=2013-2014&min=

[BLT]

More important than points per 40 minutes is overall offensive efficiency. Not sure why Deonte isn't listed. For conference games only look at where MU players ranks.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/offensive_rating_pct?games=2&conf=big-east&season=2013-2014&min=

I think the leaders cut off is 40% of the minutes played, like it is in Pomeroy. I don't think anyone is arguing that Burton is an efficient offensive player yet, but like your original post, that he was a productive one. (Pomeroy had him slightly above average at 101.4). He took a whopping 33% of the shots when he was in there: He was simply a volume scorer in his limited minutes (he was 8th is percent of minutes).

To me anyway, it looked like Buzz just threw him in the game and told him to find some space to free lance it, go 1:1 and just shoot. He didn't really play in the flow of the offensive so there was no apparent scheming for him. In fact, him and Gardner often were in the same space as they were at the end of that one game where they were both vying for the ball. His efficiency will improve with minutes.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Gardner graduating might be a really good thing for Deonte. While they didn't play the same position under Buzz, they both had the same general role of low-post scoring.

I'm pretty well known for my (sometimes absurdly) high hopes, but I think this team will be better next year. We gave a ton of minutes to guys that simply didn't step up. I think the guys we have left on the roster actually suit what Duke tries to do better than they do what Buzz was trying to do. We don't have a lot of inside depth, but we'll see how the roster comes together. Let's not forget Jabari Parker played a decent amount of center this season, so it's not like Wojo has never seen a guy go into the post undersized. Juan and Steve in a pinch could fill that role, at least until Fischer is ready.

[Phantom Warrior]

Anyone know what "Roland" and "Roland Average" mean in the stat analysis?

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/roland_avg?games=2&conf=big-east&season=2013-2014&min=

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

So you think that next year we sneak into the NIT. Ouch. If I believed that, I think that I'd have to take a year off. I guess even another 17-15 year would be worth seeing to see how the young talent develops over the course of the year, and how Wojo handles his first year as a HC.

I never said sneak in, I just said I don't see next years team being markedly better than last years. I think with what we are losing and what we have coming back we could struggle again next year. I really think the core of this team looks bright for the future as almost all of the talent is sophomores but I think they will need more time. Sure Burton is a stud and if he continues to progress will be really good, but I see his number replacing what we got from Davante, But the rest of the roster has a lot of question marks on it.

[MUMac]

Anyone know what "Roland" and "Roland Average" mean in the stat analysis?

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/roland_avg?games=2&conf=big-east&season=2013-2014&min=

Players +/- on the court versus off. http://www.82games.com/rolandratings.htm

[Phantom Warrior]

Thanks. I like the concept behind this stat.

Interesting that Davante led the conference, numero uno for conference games.

Also interesting our next guy was at #23 - Thomas - with Jamil at #25.

I'm surprised that Todd was down at #35.

Hard not to notice that Derrick isn't even listed among the Top 36/37.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Roland rating is a tough sell for many numbers junkies because it takes so little into account. The same people that will knock Derrick for not showing up higher in the Roland Rating end up eating their hat as they try to explain why people like Dawson often suffer under the same rating.

The system only looks at the individual and doesn't take into account who else they are playing with, and perhaps more important, who they are playing against. I get the system, I understand it does have some value, but +/- is a very hard stat to take too seriously in a team sport.

EDIT: For example, Creighton and Villanova have 9 of the top 18 players between them. That's not because those are the best players in the league, it's simply because they outscored everyone they played, so their players benefit the most from this type of rating system. In addition, does anyone really think Forrest Robinson, Jaren Sina, Reggie Cameron, or Sandi Marcius are among the top-40 players in the Big East? Of course not. But they end up with a favorable Roland Rating nonetheless.

[2012Warrior]

If Wojo lets the young guys play and lives with some "freshman mistakes," even if it is the same end result, this season will be way more exciting. I think we all knew there was a ceiling on how far we could go. With the young guys, the floor is lower, but the ceiling is higher. I could see us with an 11 seed. If Deonte starts playing more efficiently our offense could be good. Him and Mayo could be a nice 1-2 punch. JuJuan was pretty good offensively, if he gets Wojo's defensive scheme, I'm sure his confidence would improve and he may show more offensively.

We have a lot of undeveloped talent. Wes Matthews flourished under a change in coaches. Granted, I don't think we have anyone near Wes' level on our team at the moment, but maybe something clicks with Wojo that they show more than we'd expect and we get an 8 or 9 seed.