Big East Attendance Analysis

[CaribouJim]

Good article on Big East attendence from Georgetown Hoya.

http://www.thehoya.com/sports/attendance-beyond-the-numbers-1.3148825?pagereq=1#.Uxyqvo4o7bU

Only 2 teams, Creighton and MU, above 10,000 w/ G-Town dipping just below. Like DePaul, their students have a cruddy commute as well. Not sure what SetonHall's commute is.

Reason for most of the teams being below is 10,000 are the capacities, but not all - DePaul and Seton Hall the worst offenders, but G-Town is right there and PC would hit 10,000 if they were about 80% capacity like MU typically is.

How many games does SJU play on campus? Even when they do play in the Garden they seem to do crap although I don't have numbers in front of me.

Even when you factor that the Big East teams are primarily urban therefore an on campus facility can't be very large and if they don't they may have an ugly commute the overall #'s don't look great.

PS - was yesterday's crowd enough of bring us up to 15,000?

[TedBaxter]

MU went up to 15,327 per game after yesterday.

[MU/Panther]

PC had many great crowd. One snowstorm killing what would be better numbers.

Georgetown doesn't draw well. Numbers are always lifted when Syracuse comes in at 21,000 plus. They had no non-conference games that were big.

[CaribouJim]

MU went up to 15,327 per game after yesterday.

Good. Not bad I guess considering the off year MU is having and the Wisconsin game was away.

Wish they can figure out a way to funnel student tickets to grade school or high school kids for free in instances like yesterday when MU kids were making their way to spring break to get some fannies in the seats.

[TedBaxter]

Villanova played only 4 games off campus and they averaged 16,000 in those games.

[MU/Panther]

Villanova played only 4 games off campus and they averaged 16,000 in those games.

There final two vs Marquette and Georgetown were with their students on break. Numbers could've been higher.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I admit I'm a little worried about BET attendance as well. Seems like it could be hard to keep MSG if the numbers aren't there. SJU as the home team will only mean so much if you potentially have the ACC with Syracuse, BC, and Pitt fairly close by coupled with large alumni bases from their state schools.

[DCwarrior]

G'town has very little in the way of excuses for their poor attendance. Granted the students have a difficult time getting from campus to downtown as there's no Metro in the Georgetown area, but the school has shuttle buses for the students and the lack of students isn't their problem. The support the program receives from their alumni and law school alumni is the problem and it's really embarrassing. There are so many wealthy alumni living in the DC area, that the school should have no problem getting 15K of their fans to every game. Add in the number of alumni/fans from the schools they play that live in the DC area and you should get another 1K of their fans. The school does a poor job of promoting/advertising to the general public and they must also do a lousy job of advertising to their alumni.

[CaribouJim]

G'town has very little in the way of excuses for their poor attendance. Granted the students have a difficult time getting from campus to downtown as there's no Metro in the Georgetown area, but the school has shuttle buses for the students and the lack of students isn't their problem. The support the program receives from their alumni and law school alumni is the problem and it's really embarrassing. There are so many wealthy alumni living in the DC area, that the school should have no problem getting 15K of their fans to every game. Add in the number of alumni/fans from the schools they play that live in the DC area and you should get another 1K of their fans. The school does a poor job of promoting/advertising to the general public and they must also do a lousy job of advertising to their alumni.

Yeh, I don't get it. It's not like they have to battle winter weather, with the exception of this winter at least.

[CaribouJim]

I admit I'm a little worried about BET attendance as well. Seems like it could be hard to keep MSG if the numbers aren't there. SJU as the home team will only mean so much if you potentially have the ACC with Syracuse, BC, and Pitt fairly close by coupled with large alumni bases from their state schools.

I'm concerned too - don't want to get embarrassed - thank God for Creighton. I feel guilty that I am not going.

[warriorfan4life]

I am actually picking the Johnnies to win it, and hope that helps the attendance for walk-up crowds.

[BLT]

You would think that the member schools have a handle on the BET ticket situation for some time, per guarantee allotments. I did see on FS1 there was a commercial to buy tickets though. I worry more about future years.

This is where having only ten team hurts, especially with the length and cost of NYC for a traveling fan. IMO, the schools have made a big mistake only focusing on the TV experience and not the in-game experience with the debut. The live fans were neglected from start times to in game replays to officials calling 54 fouls per game to social media. And then a lot of TV games were on FS2 or sold to CBS. SJU and DePaul need to be very good for a number of years.

[TheSultan]

When you are getting $4M per school annually, you do what TV asks of you.

[MayorBeluga]

We all knew the BET was going to take an attendance hit. Taking Cuse and UConn fans out of the picture does that automatically. Then, the three newbies, X, Butler and Creighton, are all in the midwest. Yes, CU fans are going to there in droves this year, but what about next year? Their team is built for this season, so how many will make the trek from Omaha in 2015? If we really want to keep the BET at MSG, we need Nova, G'town and mostly SJU fans to attend. BET crowds are the real reason Hizzoner would love UConn to give up the football drream and move back to the Big East (yes, it's not gonna happen).

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I think it's inevitable that eventually the Big East will lose MSG at the very least part time to the ACC if not every year. If there are struggles right now to get enough tickets sold then it isn't going to get much easier in the coming years. I think the end result will be a rotating schedule between sites like Chicago, Indianapolis, DC, and New York maybe... That's just my two cents though.

[TheSultan]

I think it's inevitable that eventually the Big East will lose MSG at the very least part time to the ACC if not every year. If there are struggles right now to get enough tickets sold then it isn't going to get much easier in the coming years. I think the end result will be a rotating schedule between sites like Chicago, Indianapolis, DC, and New York maybe... That's just my two cents though.


I agree with you. I have a feeling that keeping the BET at MSG is ultimately going to be a losing battle.

[CaribouJim]

I saw a Mike Brey interview a few weeks ago where he was beating the "ACC tourney needs to be in MSG" drum. Thanks Mike.

Ultimately it's up to the BE team members to make it a non-issue. If the attendance is ugly this year, hopefully Val and her team along with the members put together a game plan to address it with maybe some added pressure on the east coast based teams.

[Gato78]

Attendance only matters depending on the deal. If MSG has a guarantee, and the schools pay MSG the guarantee, who cares what the numbers are? MSG gets theirs no matter what. We need some time to continue building the brand. If St. John's makes the championship game this week, there are no issues. ACC will NEVER go to MSG permanently. The southerners won't let that happen.

[CaribouJim]

Attendance only matters depending on the deal. If MSG has a guarantee, and the schools pay MSG the guarantee, who cares what the numbers are? MSG gets theirs no matter what. We need some time to continue building the brand. If St. John's makes the championship game this week, there are no issues. ACC will NEVER go to MSG permanently. The southerners won't let that happen.

That may be the case and I agree that the BE needs some time to continue building the brand, but I think the that brand can take a hit if MSG is littered with empty seats on our first go around and I would feel better not giving the ACC any ammunition for down the road. Hopefully it is a moot point.

[MayorBeluga]

True Gato. But we don't know what the deal is. Does MSG have an out if the BE does not hit certain numbers? Does the guarantee cover lost revenue from concessions due to smaller numbers? Does MSG owe the BE something if they opt out? Sadly, this year's semifinals will not have the same NYC feel. It was an event in years past, with lots of people there to be seen. For example, the past 2-3 years Bill Clinton was there. OK, it was so he and Rick Pitino could go trolling later, but still. Also, you see other celebrities, both real and wanna-be. Doubtful it's the same.

The ACC to MSG stuff depends on one player: Carolina. Duke loves playing in NYC as they have a huge alumni and fan base there. You know the Judas wing would love it. BC would as well. The other ACC schools? I'm guessing most don't care. Would Carolina accept leaving the south? Probably, but only every third or forth year. If so, do we rotate? Well, we should have the BET at MSG every year if possible, but at least every other year. DC would be good for off years as Verizon Center is decent and located in a great spot.

[MUBasketball]

ACC will NEVER go to MSG permanently. The southerners won't let that happen.

I don't believe that at all. Hell, there's even talk of the B1G eyeing MSG for the conference tournament too. I don't know why any major conference wouldn't do all they could to hold the tournament there. It's the best place for it.

[BLT]

When you are getting $4M per school annually, you do what TV asks of you.

But you also have to guarantee $ to MSG that the schools have to cover. End of the day, you cannot alienate and disenfranchise your fan and alumni base. A half empty MSG isn't good for FS1 or the member schools.

I think expansion is inevitable for two business reasons: More fans like in this case to put butts in the seats. Two, more teams in the NCAA for credits.

I agree with the UCONN dream and also I agree it won't happen. I don't think that football will ever be profitable or successful in the long-term there. But, FS1 won't pony up more for Dayton, Richmond or SLU so the per school cash would go down. But they might for a UCONN, especially to jab at Bristol.

I also wonder how the school fit for ND works out for them long-term in the ACC? Football made that an easy decision for them, but it is still an odd fit and odd deal as it took them out of their traditional alumni base: Chicago, Ohio, NYC, DC. Sure, they have Cuse with upstate NY halo, Pitt and BC, but they lose Maryland too, to go with the existing Big East markets.

No question the ACC wants MSG as it is a big hole for them as we hear from Brey, Dixon and Boeheim. Let's hope for some craziness at the Garden this year.

[TheSultan]

But you also have to guarantee $ to MSG that the schools have to cover. End of the day, you cannot alienate and disenfranchise your fan and alumni base. A half empty MSG isn't good for FS1 or the member schools.

I think expansion is inevitable for two business reasons: More fans like in this case to put butts in the seats. Two, more teams in the NCAA for credits.


Yeah, I have been thinking since brew's comments over the weekend about how the A10 in many ways benefits from simply being bigger, that adding a couple of schools has some additional benefits that I hadn't thought about earlier. You bring up two good ones.

[Gato78]

MSG is the MECCA of basketball. It is a HUGE part of the BIG EAST brand that separates the BIG EAST from the other conferences. It should be continued at any reasonable cost. No one else should be allowed in. As the brand builds, it may be the go to place again. St. John's and Lavin become the media sweethearts and Georgetown gets itself together along with us, we may be premier again. Hey, and DePaul, let's see them send more than four people there. They are becoming a drag on the conference and the conference tournament is Exhibit A. If DePaul has a halfway decent product, it would really help attendance.

[Goose85]

We all knew the BET was going to take an attendance hit. Taking Cuse and UConn fans out of the picture does that automatically. Then, the three newbies, X, Butler and Creighton, are all in the midwest. Yes, CU fans are going to there in droves this year, but what about next year? Their team is built for this season, so how many will make the trek from Omaha in 2015? If we really want to keep the BET at MSG, we need Nova, G'town and mostly SJU fans to attend. BET crowds are the real reason Hizzoner would love UConn to give up the football drream and move back to the Big East (yes, it's not gonna happen).

UConn is an interesting option for the Big East, even with football.

They have football, poor football, but football and want to keep it.
At this point it does not look like they will be joining one of the Big 5 conferences (that is a key).

While it doesn't seem to matter in the conference shuffle, the AAC is not a great geographic fit for UConn going forward (2 Florida / 2 Texas / 1 Tenn / 1 Louisianna / 1 Ohio / 1 NC / 1 Penn, 1 Ok, 1 MD), and the football is not much better than the MAC.

Option to sell UConn on Big East.

Join the Big East for all things but football.
Join the MAC as a football only participant, just as UMass does (in A-10 for other sports).
MAC has 13 football playing schools, so UConn would give them two 7 team football divisions.

Positive for UConn
More exposure on east coast should help with east coast recruiting.
Less travel expense for all sports.
Back to Big East.
Make more money from Big East than currently do in AAC.

[CaribouJim]

You're right Gato. DePaul getting its act together really is important for the success of the BE. I think the press is far too kind to DePaul here in Chicago, although they are basically ignored.

Youngsters on this board don't realize that for about 5-6 years from their '79 FF DePaul was America's team - sellout crowds at the Horizon (which when it opened it was considered a palace if you can believe that), seemingly the game of the week on TV before cable started to take over. How it has sunk to the levels it has is really depressing. Need to clean house big time.

DePaul and SJU are the 2 largest Catholic colleges in 2 of the 3 largest TV markets - SJU looks to be headed in the right direction and DePaul has 3 impressive frosh - maybe they can be the start of something.

[TheSultan]

UConn is an interesting option for the Big East, even with football.

They have football, poor football, but football and want to keep it.
At this point it does not look like they will be joining one of the Big 5 conferences (that is a key).

While it doesn't seem to matter in the conference shuffle, the AAC is not a great geographic fit for UConn going forward (2 Florida / 2 Texas / 1 Tenn / 1 Louisianna / 1 Ohio / 1 NC / 1 Penn, 1 Ok, 1 MD), and the football is not much better than the MAC.

Option to sell UConn on Big East.

Join the Big East for all things but football.
Join the MAC as a football only participant, just as UMass does (in A-10 for other sports).
MAC has 13 football playing schools, so UConn would give them two 7 team football divisions.

Positive for UConn
More exposure on east coast should help with east coast recruiting.
Less travel expense for all sports.
Back to Big East.
Make more money from Big East than currently do in AAC.


I have never seen a school voluntarily downgrade its football conference affiliation. I really think we need to realize that UConn, UC, ND...none of them are about to do so at anytime soon.

[MUMac]

I would still like to add UCONN and Cincy. I know I am in the minority, but they add much more than St. Louis, Wichita State, Richmond, VCU, Dayton, etal. Get a commitment from them with some teeth to it. That would solidify the Big East at MSG, as well.

[Goose85]

I have never seen a school voluntarily downgrade its football conference affiliation. I really think we need to realize that UConn, UC, ND...none of them are about to do so at anytime soon.

You are likely correct Sultan, and I agree the AAC is better in football, but overall Big East participation with football in the MAC would be a better financial allignment.

After Louisville and Rutgers leave, the AAC adds East Carolina, Navy, Tulsa and Tulane. A few good football schools here, but nothing that will move the network ratings needle. Really downgrading conference hoops perceptions too.

In order, Mountain West, AAC, MAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt are the outsiders. Is #2 of the rest that much better than #3?
Not much from a financial standpoint.

UConn football, in either conference, will not be on TV much, but UConn basketball in the Big East could vastly increase their TV exposure.

[Nukem2]

UConn football, in either conference, will not be on TV much, but UConn basketball in the Big East could vastly increase their TV exposure.
Though, it seemed every time I turned on an ESPN channel, I seemed to find UConn or Cincy. Exposure probably would not be greater, but the $$$ would be much better for UConn BB.....

[CaribouJim]

I would still like to add UCONN and Cincy. I know I am in the minority, but they add much more than St. Louis, Wichita State, Richmond, VCU, Dayton, etal. Get a commitment from them with some teeth to it. That would solidify the Big East at MSG, as well.

I'm still all over that as well. I don't think the dust has settled on realignment and I think the next shuffle will be even more football centric and UCONN and Cinci will be on the outside looking in - AGAIN - and the $ #'s from a football program might make them more flexible to an arrangement like Goose is suggesting.

It's a long shot, but not crazy to kick the idea around like we are on this thread. Just as ESPN threw around money and influence that helped lead to the realignments maybe FS1 decides they want to do something on the b-ball side to beef up the BE.

I'd hang my hat on a BE with those 12 teams - could compete with anyone while shoring up MSG affiliation.

Nothing would surprise me.

[TheSultan]

I'm still all over that as well. I don't think the dust has settled on realignment and I think the next shuffle will be even more football centric and UCONN and Cinci will be on the outside looking in - AGAIN - and the $ #'s from a football program might make them more flexible to an arrangement like Goose is suggesting.

It's a long shot, but not crazy to kick the idea around like we are on this thread. Just as ESPN threw around money and influence that helped lead to the realignments maybe FS1 decides they want to do something on the b-ball side to beef up the BE.

I'd hang my hat on a BE with those 12 teams - could compete with anyone while shoring up MSG affiliation.

Nothing would surprise me.


I know enough about conference realignment to never-say-never. And yeah, a scenario like yours could turn out to be the case when you look at 10 to 15 years from now. I just don't think it's going to happen anytime soon to resolve the MSG issue.

[TheSultan]

An article on the BET from the Post:

http://nypost.com/2014/03/09/revamped-big-east-back-at-the-garden/

"But it also will be interesting to see what kind of interest its marquee event draws without so much star power. There are still individual tickets available, but a source said the league “is in good shape” with the amount of seats it has already sold." (If the source is outside the Big East, that is likely excellent news!)

Also on expansion:

"First-year commissioner Val Ackerman said she is pleased with the first season of the new league. Though she admitted there is a possibility of expansion down the road, Ackerman said the league’s presidents favor the 10-team, round-robin format in which everyone plays each other twice during the regular season."

(My guess is that expansion is at least another year away by the sounds of this...likely more.)

[MUMac]

I have never seen a school voluntarily downgrade its football conference affiliation. I really think we need to realize that UConn, UC, ND...none of them are about to do so at anytime soon.

Is the MAC a downgrade? Louisville is gone after this year. I am not so certain that the remaining teams make much of a statement for football.

[TheSultan]

Is the MAC a downgrade? Louisville is gone after this year. I am not so certain that the remaining teams make much of a statement for football.


Yeah, the MAC is a pretty big downgrade. I mean we will have to see after a couple of years how it pans out, but the only conferences worse in FBS are the Sun Belt and CUSA...both of which have been reduced to "entry level conferences" for teams making the jump from FCS.

http://realtimerpi.com/football/ncaaf_conf_Men.html

EDIT TO ADD: Also, the current MAC bowls pay out a total of 1.825. The current AAC bowls payout a total of 7.3M. I know this will change a little for next year, and things are going to change with the new playoff, but the AAC bowls are much more lucrative than the MAC ones are.

[Halo]

I would still like to add UCONN and Cincy. I know I am in the minority, but they add much more than St. Louis, Wichita State, Richmond, VCU, Dayton, etal. Get a commitment from them with some teeth to it. That would solidify the Big East at MSG, as well.

This. Been saying it for awhile also. Cincy and UConn may be desperate enough and the BE may as well. Would be a great balance of teams.

[Goose85]

Yeah, the MAC is a pretty big downgrade. I mean we will have to see after a couple of years how it pans out, but the only conferences worse in FBS are the Sun Belt and CUSA...both of which have been reduced to "entry level conferences" for teams making the jump from FCS.

http://realtimerpi.com/football/ncaaf_conf_Men.html

EDIT TO ADD: Also, the current MAC bowls pay out a total of 1.825. The current AAC bowls payout a total of 7.3M. I know this will change a little for next year, and things are going to change with the new playoff, but the AAC bowls are much more lucrative than the MAC ones are.

Of the 5 "have not" conferences, the MAC is behind the Mountain West and AAC.

Intersting on the bowl payouts. I do think that gap may be getting closer as the 5 have not conferences are establishing bowl ties together, with some on a rotating basis, because the Big 5 conferences keep squeezing them out.

[TheSultan]

KenPom on Big East:

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/big_east_log51

"The Big East has been unfairly maligned this year basically because, from what I can tell, it doesn’t have enough teams. More specifically, it doesn’t have enough good teams, and really what that means is enough tournament teams. Heading into this event, the conference only has three teams considered safe by the nation’s bracketologists and those are top three seeds of Villanova, Creighton and Xavier, and even Xavier is no certainty should they drop a quarterfinal game with Marquette. (The bid thief calculation assumes those teams are in.)

St. John’s, Providence, and Georgetown are lurking and with two wins maybe they join the party. Providence and St. John’s are matched up in a quarterfinal game, so one of them will get helped by that. Anyway, back to my original plan for the Big East. Get three or four more teams into your league. Maybe you get another bid or two, and that’s what the national media tends to value when judging conferences."

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I think two more would be enough. The only question is do you want to add a St. Louis and Richmond (for example) combo that adds solid basketball programs but further increases the side of the middle of the league, or do you want to add maybe Duquesne and Detroit that may not be basketball powers but do add sizable markets as well as wins for the bubble teams?

The A-10 is probably going to get 5-6 bids and I would be surprised if we got more than they did. The reason is the bad teams that give easy victories. The same goes with the AAC. People perceive that league to be stronger than the Big East, but it is basically 5 pretty good teams and 5 miserably bad ones. I think if you put any of the top-7 Big East teams in the A-10 they would be a top-35 RPI team, in the top 3 of the conference, and a lock for the tourney. Honestly, even Seton Hall might contend there. In the AAC, swap any top-7 Big East team for any top-5 AAC team and they'd be a tourney lock as well.

Adding 2 more highly competitive teams could just mean you have 6-7 bubble teams in the future instead of 4-5. Adding 2 weaker teams, on the other hand, would likely solidify those bubble teams as tourney teams. Might seem counter-intuitive, but I do think it would be worth it for the league to look into.

[warriorfan4life]

The Big 12 is also about to put 7 of its 10 teams in, with an outside chance of 8 of 10 if West Virginia made a run to the tourney finals. I also would not be surprised if the A-10 gets the same 4 bids that we will get. If St. Joe's beats Dayton/Mason, then loses to SLU, then I think it will be just 4 bids on Selection Sunday (Dayton would have too many losses, and there is really is little depth to St. Joe's profile).