Schedules the rest of the way

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

So what I decided to do was look at Lunardi’s and Jerry Palm’s brackets and compile a list of bubble teams to track, I was quite surprised at how many schools were listed, however I made a list with RPI’s and their remaining schedules which I will track. The way I arranged them is if both Lunardi and Palm have them as in I put them above the cut line, if one has them in and one has them out then I put them below the cut line.

Last Teams in:
California (RPI #50): 2/26 L @Arizona (RPI #1), 3/1 L @Arizona St. (RPI #28), 3/5 vs. Utah (RPI #80), 3/8 vs. Colorado (RPI #30)

Colorado (RPI #30):3/1 L @Utah (RPI #80), 3/5 @Stanford (RPI #43), 3/8 @Cal (RPI#50), PAC 12 Tournament

Saint Joseph’s (RPI #35): 2/25 W vs. Dayton (RPI #55), 3/1 W @St. Bonaventure (RPI #85), 3/5 @George Washington (RPI #31), 3/9 vs. LaSalle (RPI #96), A10 Tournament

Oklahoma State (RPI #49): 2/24 W @TCU (RPI #193), 3/1 W vs. Kansas (RPI #1), 3/3 vs. Kansas State (RPI #39), 3/8 @Iowa State (RPI #11), Big 12 Tournament

Arkansas (RPI #71): 2/27 W @Kentucky (RPI #10), 3/1 W vs. Georgia (RPI #80), 3/5 vs. Ole Miss (RPI #82), @Alabama (RPI #116), SEC Tournament

Oregon (RPI #39): 2/23 W vs. Washington State (RPI #190), 2/27 W @UCLA (RPI #13), 3/1 W @USC (RPI #157), 3/4 vs. Arizona State (RPI #32), 3/8 vs. Arizona (RPI #2), PAC-12 Tournament

------------------------------------------ CUT LINE ------------------------------------------
BYU (RPI #34): 3/1 W @San Diego (RPI #148), WCC Tournament

Providence (RPI #61): 2/28 W @Seton Hall (RPI #134), 3/4 vs. Marquette (RPI #75), 3/8 @Creighton (RPI #6), Big East Tournament

Minnesota (RPI #45): 2/25 W vs. Iowa (RPI #32), 3/1 L @Michigan (RPI #13), 3/8 vs. Penn State (RPI #121), B10 Tournament

Missouri (RPI #50): 2/25 L @Georgia (RPI #80), 3/1 W vs. Mississippi State (RPI #211), 3/5 vs. Texas A&M (RPI #119), 3/8 @Tennessee (RPI #58), SEC Tournament

Tennessee (RPI #58): 2/26 W @Mississippi State (RPI # 211), 3/1 W vs. Vanderbilt (RPI #88), 3/5 @Auburn (RPI #164), 3/8 vs. Missouri (RPI #50), SEC Tournament

St. Johns (RPI #63): 2/25 L vs. Xavier (RPI #41), 3/2 W vs. Depaul (RPI #142), 3/8 @Marquette (RPI #75), Big East Tournament

Richmond (RPI #47): 2/26 L @George Mason (RPI #152), 3/1 L @Rhode Island (RPI #158), 3/6 vs. VCU (RPI# 25), 3/8 @Dayton (RPI #55), A10 Tournament

Dayton (RPI #55): 2/25 L @St. Joes (RPI #35), 3/1 W vs. UMASS (RPI #14), 3/5 @St. Louis (RPI #12), 3/8 vs. Richmond (RPI #47), A10 Tournament

Georgetown (RPI #64): 2/27 L @Marquette (RPI #75), 3/4 Creighton (RPI #6), 3/8 @Nova (RPI #4), BE Tournament

Nebraska (RPI #48): 2/23 W vs. Purdue (RPI #118), 2/26 L @Illinois (RPI #87), 3/1 W vs. Northwestern (RPI #114), 3/5 @Indiana (RPI #95), 3/9 vs. Wisconsin (RPI #5), Big10 Tournament

Florida State (RPI #59): 2/23 W @Pittsburgh (RPI #46), 3/2 Georgia Tech (RPI #161), 3/4 @Boston College (RPI #184), 3/9 vs. Syracuse (RPI #8), ACC Tournament

Southern Miss (RPI #36): 2/27 W vs. Florida Int. (RPI#235), 3/2 W @Florida Atlantic (RPI #252), 3/6 @Tulane (RPI #212), CUSA Tournament

Marquette (RPI #75): 2/27 W vs. Georgetown (RPI #64), 3/2 L @Nova (RPI #4), 3/4 @Providence (RPI #61), 3/8 vs. St. John's (RPI #63), BE Tournament

---------------------- Not Mentioned in First Four Out Or Next Four Out ------------------------
LSU (RPI #72): 2/26 W vs. Texas A&M (RPI #119), 3/1 L @Florida (RPI #3), 3/6 @Vanderbilt (RPI #88), 3/8 vs. Georgia (RPI #80), SEC Tournament

La. Tech (RPI #83): 2/27 W vs. Middle Tennessee (RPI #65), 3/2 @UAB (RPI #137), 3/6 @Rice (RPI #301), CUSA Tournament

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

You should edit that to include the last four in and last four byes, if possible.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I only saw his tweet with these teams, did he update those yet?

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Not sure, but would love to see what's in store for the 20 or so teams currently on the bubble.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Well he will update the site on Monday morning so I'll update this at that point and add teams. As things progress over the next two weeks I'll keep updating this too (provided MU stays relevant)

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Most likely he will, I think he does a new one every Monday. Maybe even tonight.

[MU/Panther]

Jerry Palm on CBS, is another or even better source.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

The only reason i use ESPN is because they list the first four out, next four, and another four... Without that MU wouldn't be on the radar for most... I'll update tomorrow when ESPN updates their last four in...

[MU/Panther]

ESPN list 9 thru 12 who miss the field? Check again.
It's last four with byes. Last four in. First four out. Next four out.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

The bracket he has out today is from the 20th so doesn't include the weekend games, however today he tweeted his updated First Four out (which is 1-4 below the cut line), Next Four Out (5-8), and then another four (9-12)... Marquette was included in the 9-12 range so I decided to use his rankings for some perspective... The reality is most of these services have all the same teams on the bubble but might rank them slightly differently, either way this is more about seeing all the teams on the bubbles schedule in one spot... Tomorrow he will update his bracket again and I will add the current last four in as well as update this.

[MU/Panther]

Ok, I see it on twitter. It's not ever listed on espn.com.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Yes Lunardi tweets updates throughout the week

[MU/Panther]

Yes Lunardi tweets updates throughout the week
Good tip! As I see fans on twitter with Jerry Palm.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Updated with Results from 2/23

[MU/Panther]

Jerry Palm updated latenight 2/23

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[MU/Panther]

Joey Brackets 2/24
http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Updated and have now added both Lunardi's and Palm's information. Basically what I did is if both of them had a team in they were above the cut line, if one or the other had them out then they went below the cut line. I added all the bubble teams that they referenced as well as their schedules. I will update this as things progress and as I have time... I am hoping some teams naturally eliminate themselves as this is a beast to keep up with the constantly changing information.

[MU/Panther]

Jerry Palm is on Sirius Xm, channel 91. Right now.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Nice work, Buzz. Big night tomorrow, with 7 of the 22 bubble teams in action. That Xavier/SJU game is pretty huge.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

Thanks for doing this. Man looking at that list confirms for me that we need a LOT to go right for us to get in. Not only do we need to win some games, but we need some other squads to struggle and also avoid a lot of bid stealers via conf tourney upsets. Sure the bubble is weak, but as it stands we may be the weakest bubble team. Hate to say it, but I'm still maintaining my pessimistic stance and saying it won't happen.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Teams will win and lose, all we can do is take care of ourselves. 3-1 in league, 1-1 in MSG, we should be in.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

The only reason there are so many bubble teams is because at the moment nobody is running away with those last few spots... Lots of real average teams separated by maybe a game or two... It will be tough for the tournament to wade through the garbage to pick the last few teams.

[Goose85]

Teams will win and lose, all we can do is take care of ourselves. 3-1 in league, 1-1 in MSG, we should be in.

If we were to go 3-1 down the stretch, I'd prefer to win the next three, meaning a sweep of GTown and Providence and a win over highly ranked Villanova. Sweep two other bubble teams and get a win over a ranked team.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

The 'Nova game is the prize, but the RPI is pretty much the same no matter who the loss is to. Going 3-1 is more important than who we beat. From a RPI perspective, St. John's is the worst team we could lose to, though it makes very little difference.

[MU/Panther]

Teams will win and lose, all we can do is take care of ourselves. 3-1 in league, 1-1 in MSG, we should be in. I don't see those numbers adding up for MU getting in.

[MUfan12]

I don't see those numbers adding up for MU getting in.

I used to think that would be enough, but I took a look at the numbers and it doesn't look great.

19-12, going 1-1 in NYC puts their RPI in the high 50's. Doubt that is good enough, given the lack of quality wins.

[warriorfan4life]

I think 19-12, 1-1, would be enough if there is a win at Nova included. If not, then I think it will have to be 19-12, 2-1 (and hope one of two wins is over Creighton or Nova).

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Honestly a lot will depend on what happens around us too... There are a lot of bubble teams with a lot of quality win chances in front of us in line right now...I think 5 wins is the magic number right now, whether that is finishing 4-0 and then 1-1 in the conference tourney, or going 3-1 and two wins in the conference tourney... Anything less and we are spectators...

[Markedman]

Right now we are 2-9 against the top 50 and 4-10 against the top 100. Only 1 top 50 chance left as it stands today......I agree with W4life. If we don't beat Nova I think we need to get to 21 wins to have a chance....20 isn't going to get it done. IMO

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Those 4 top-100 wins are actually pretty impressive compared to a lot of the other teams we are competing with. Especially knowing that if we get 4 combined wins, that number will double.

Don't underestimate just how soft this bubble is.

[Goose85]

BuzzWilliams4Pres put together a nice list of teams to watch for those final spots in the Big Dance.

Looking at CBSsports Bracketology, these seven teams are in the field of 68, so we would need to pass them, and others, to get a bid.

If we go 4-1 (lose to either Vill or St. John) and 1-1 what would it take to pass these teams?

Last Teams in:

Xavier (RPI #50): 2/25 @St. John’s (RPI #53), 3/1 vs. Creighton (RPI #7), 3/3 @Seton Hall (RPI #122 ), 3/6 vs. Villanova (RPI #4), BE Tournament
Lose to SJU, Creighton and Vill?

Saint Joseph’s (RPI #38): 2/25 vs. Dayton (RPI #57), 3/1 @St. Bonaventure (RPI #86), 3/5 @George Washington (RPI #31), 3/9 vs. LaSalle (RPI #96), A10 Tournament
Lose to Dayton, GW and opening round of A10 tourney?

Providence (RPI #62): 2/28 @Seton Hall (RPI #122), 3/4 vs. Marquette (RPI #75), 3/8 @Creighton (RPI #7), Big East Tournament
Lose to MU and Creighton?

Oklahoma State (RPI #49): 2/24 W @TCU (RPI #187), 3/1 vs. Kansas (RPI #1), 3/3 vs. Kansas State (RPI #42), 3/8 @Iowa State (RPI #11), Big 12 Tournament
Lose to Kansas, K State and Iowa State?

------------------------------------------ CUT LINE ------------------------------------------

Dayton (RPI #57): 2/25 @St. Joes (RPI #39), 3/1 vs. UMASS (RPI #14), 3/5 @St. Louis (RPI #12), 3/8 vs. Richmond (RPI #47), A10 Tournament
Lose two or three of last four?

Georgetown (RPI #62): 2/27 @Marquette (RPI #75), 3/4 Creighton (RPI #7), 3/8 @Nova (RPI #4), BE Tournament
Lose to MU, Creighton and Vill?

Oregon (RPI #39): 2/23 W vs. Washington State (RPI #190), 2/27 @UCLA (RPI #13), 3/1 @USC (RPI #157), 3/4 vs. Arizona State (RPI #32), 3/8 vs. Arizona (RPI #2), PAC-12 Tournament
Lose to UCLA, ASU and Arizona?

Marquette (RPI #75): 2/27 vs. Georgetown (RPI #62), 3/2 @Nova (RPI #4), 3/4 @Providence (RPI #63), 3/8 vs. St. John's (RPI #53), BE Tournament

[Markedman]

The selection dynamic in the Big East is not dissimilar from the SEC: Two teams safely locked away, gazing out from the castle tower as a handful of teams desperately try to scale the walls below. The Big East has more in play than the SEC at this point, and thus more likely inclusions. Could Marquette join them? Not likely. The Golden Eagles might be able to overcome their complete lack of quality wins were their computer numbers not so ugly, but they are (the numbers). Marquette fans have been asking the Watch for some sort of closer examination lately. We acquiesced, and yeah, no.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[warriorfan4life]

The selection dynamic in the Big East is not dissimilar from the SEC: Two teams safely locked away, gazing out from the castle tower as a handful of teams desperately try to scale the walls below. The Big East has more in play than the SEC at this point, and thus more likely inclusions. Could Marquette join them? Not likely. The Golden Eagles might be able to overcome their complete lack of quality wins were their computer numbers not so ugly, but they are (the numbers). Marquette fans have been asking the Watch for some sort of closer examination lately. We acquiesced, and yeah, no.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

The thing is, a win at Villanova jumps Marquette right above all of the junk at the end of the line. Not exactly an easy ask, but we have put ourselves in the position where we need to do something extraordinary on the road. Beating a top 10 team at their place qualifies as extraordinary.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

It comes down to what we have to do. We need to win 4 more games. If we do, those computer numbers get a lot better. They can say we have no chance all they like. 4-2 from here on in and we have a good shot. 5 wins and we're pretty much a lock. Because what that will do to the computer numbers will be simple -- it will make ours better than most of the rest of the bubble.

[AlexJesswein]

Final Record W-L pctg. Expected RPI Probability
23-11 67.65% 27.8 0.05%
22-12 64.71% 34.7 0.81%
21-12 63.64% 48.7 0.59%
20-12 62.50% 64.5 0.77%
21-13 61.76% 42.7 2.59%
20-13 60.61% 58.4 5.16%
21-14 60.00% 41.4 0.05%
19-13 59.38% 75.0 7.88%
20-14 58.82% 53.1 4.25%
19-14 57.58% 68.3 13.56%
20-15 57.14% 54.7 0.26%
18-14 56.25% 85.7 20.52%
19-15 55.88% 65.7 2.86%
18-15 54.55% 80.9 12.58%
19-16 54.29% 67.5 0.37%
17-15 53.12% 96.7 18.02%
18-16 52.94% 81.3 0.83%
17-16 51.52% 95.2 5.11%
16-16 50.00% 110.8 3.73%

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Updated with Tonights Results

[Goose85]

Impact of last couple days results, did anyone play themselves in or out?

Last Teams in:

Xavier (RPI #50): 2/25 W @St. John’s (RPI #53), 3/1 vs. Creighton (RPI #7), 3/3 @Seton Hall (RPI #122 ), 3/6 vs. Villanova (RPI #4), BE Tournament
Needed that win with Creighton and Vill on the schedule. If they beat Seton Hall are they in?

Missouri (RPI #45): 2/25 L @Georgia (RPI #88), 3/1 vs. Mississippi State (RPI #212), 3/5 vs. Texas A&M (RPI #118), 3/8 @Tennessee (RPI #60), SEC Tournament
Road loss to Georgia. Sets up a big season ending game with Tenn.

Saint Joseph’s (RPI #38): 2/25 W vs. Dayton (RPI #57), 3/1 @St. Bonaventure (RPI #86), 3/5 @George Washington (RPI #31), 3/9 vs. LaSalle (RPI #96), A10 Tournament
Big win over Dayton likely puts them in and Dayton in trouble.

------------------------------------------ CUT LINE ------------------------------------------
St. Johns (RPI #53): 2/25 L vs. Xavier (RPI #50), 3/2 vs. Depaul (RPI #146), 3/8 @Marquette (RPI #75), Big East Tournament
Loss to X puts pressure on MU game and round one of BEast tourney

Minnesota (RPI #46): 2/25 W vs. Iowa (RPI #30), 3/1 @Michigan (RPI #18), 3/8 vs. Penn State (RPI #118), B10 Tournament
Big win over Iowa - if they beat Penn State are they in?

Dayton (RPI #57): 2/25 L @St. Joes (RPI #39), 3/1 vs. UMASS (RPI #14), 3/5 @St. Louis (RPI #12), 3/8 vs. Richmond (RPI #47), A10 Tournament
Not a terrible loss to St. Joe, but need a couple more wins and the next three are tough games

Clemson (RPI #69): 2/25 L @Wake Forest (RPI #106), 3/2 vs. Maryland (RPI #68), 3/4 vs. Miami (RPI #123), 3/8 vs. PITT (RPI #34), ACC Tournament
Bad lose to Wake. Tough games v. Maryland and Pitt left.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I was about to update with Palm and Lunardi's Wednesday brackets, it appears most teams I have listed are still alive in some respect except Clemson, that loss to Wake is a bad loss and they were already near the bottom.

[Goose85]

I was about to update with Palm and Lunardi's Wednesday brackets, it appears most teams I have listed are still alive in some respect except Clemson, that loss to Wake is a bad loss and they were already near the bottom.

Look forward to your update BW4Pres.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Updated with the new brackets that came out today, basically they both moved Minnesota in, and Missouri back below the cut line. Lunardi and Palm no longer list Clemson in contention but I will leave them on the list until they lose again just for good measure. There is still some differences between Lunardi's Bracket and Palm's bracket, for example Palm lists Arkansas in, but Lunardi doesnt even have them in his first four out, or next four out. Will be interesting to see where things actually end up.

As for the Big East Update Palm has 4 in (Nova, Creighton, Xavier, and Providence), and Lunardi has 5 in (Nova, Creighton, Xavier, Providence, and St. John's), and they both list Georgetown as one of the top few bubble teams left. There have been no Marquette mentions this week so far, but Lunardi hasn't tweeted out an updated "another four" for a few days. It looks like tonight is another night with a few bubble teams playing, lets hope for some more "L's" to go up on that board :)

[MU_Iceman]

I have this bad feeling(maybe it's the paranoid MU fan in me), that MU isn't as close to getting in as some think. Most here think 3-1 down the stretch with a win in the BET gets them in. I'm not so sure. I just don't want to see this scenario unfold and then set ourselves up for disappointment Selection Sunday. As much as I'd like to think 4-0 locks them in, again I'm not so sure. Something just tells me regardless of how they do down the stretch, whether that be 3-1(Loss to Nova), or finishing 4-0, they still aren't going to get in without at least a trip to the BET finals. I just do NOT and never have and never will trust the committee. I think they are further out of the field than what most of us think. I hope I'm wrong.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I updated one last time for today with current RPI data from Warren Nolan, as well as I added another line at the bottom. The top teams are teams that both Palm and Lunardi believe are in as of today, the middle group are teams that are listed in either of their First Four Out, or Next Four Out. Then everyone below the bottom line are teams that are just outside the bubble radar and are occasionally mentioned in Lunardi's "another four" or referenced as having work to do to be in the discussion (see: Marquette)

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

At the end of the day, most of it just comes down to math. If MU were to go 4-0, 1-1 in NYC would guarantee a top-50 RPI and SOS. Based on recent history, that would be a monster snub if that sort of team was left out.

I really think the best thing to do is look at blind resumes. If you stack MU up without knowing which team is which, we are pretty close. 4 wins and we'll at least have to be considered. 5 and we'll be very hard to justify leaving out.

[MU_Iceman]

At the end of the day, most of it just comes down to math. If MU were to go 4-0, 1-1 in NYC would guarantee a top-50 RPI and SOS. Based on recent history, that would be a monster snub if that sort of team was left out.

I really think the best thing to do is look at blind resumes. If you stack MU up without knowing which team is which, we are pretty close. 4 wins and we'll at least have to be considered. 5 and we'll be very hard to justify leaving out.

I sure hope you are right. I've seen the committee do some VERY strange things over the years, so nothing would surprise me, and hence why I don't trust them.

[goldenlegal22]

I also think that in addition to the numbers game that has been discussed, the selection committee would have a hard time placing teams like G'town and Providence in front of MU after MU (based off what needs to be done the rest of the way) sweeps the season series with those two and after splitting with St. Johns and Xavier. Those are the teams that are routinely discussed as in front of us in bubble discussions and I would find it really difficult to put either G'town or Providence in front of MU after MU sweeps them and then finishes third in conference in front St. Johns and Xavier. This would also be based on MU's performance in NYC. If they play one of those 4 in the first round and lose, then this idea goes out the window.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Updated: Lunardi moved FSU and Southern Miss to the next four out category so I moved them up, both Lunardi and Palm don't list BYU anymore so I downgraded them

[Halo]

In years past have teams 12 back in the field made up enough in the last 2 weeks of the season to leapfrog everyone else? Seems it's typically always the same 8 teams going on/off the bubble. We are not even in the discussion. Go 2-0 this week and hopefully we move top 4 or so of next 4 in.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I think its clear we have our work cut out for us, I compared our resume with some of the other teams on the bubble and we just dont have the top 50 wins that some of the others have, that said of most of the teams left we have a TON of opportunity for good wins, at this point the question is not can we make the tournament, its will we. We definitely have the opportunity and as you can see teams ahead of us are losing some games, so the door is open.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

speaking of which... Updated with Nebraska's loss and the rest of the results from the night.

[warriorfan4life]

In years past have teams 12 back in the field made up enough in the last 2 weeks of the season to leapfrog everyone else? Seems it's typically always the same 8 teams going on/off the bubble. We are not even in the discussion. Go 2-0 this week and hopefully we move top 4 or so of next 4 in.

You actually have 1-2 teams each year make a jump in the last couple of weeks to solidify a spot in the field.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Hopefully we can be that team this year, we have three games in 6 days coming up to make a huge statement... I think by next Tuesday we will have a real good idea where we sit.

[Goose85]

I think we all know MU needs some serious work to not only get on the bubble, but break through.

One day at a time.

With that being said, GTown is always listed as one of the first out, on the cut line, needing some work to do, etc.

If we beat GTown tonight we move to 9-6, tied for third with a 17-11 record, and a season sweep of GTown.
GTown moves to 7-9, seventh place with a 16-12 record.

Would that be enough for us to switch spots with them and move MU up into the bubble discussion and 'has work to do' type category?

Need to get in the discussion with a win tonight. That gives us a chance for a major move over the weekend.

[MUFLA]

The are going to lose to FGCU again in the first round anyway. It will be a waste of bid. BEAT GTOWN

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

The are going to lose to FGCU again in the first round anyway. It will be a waste of bid. BEAT GTOWN

No chance...Georgetown won't be seeded high enough to play FGCU in the first round ;)

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

arkansas winning at UK would not be a good thing for us or any other pseudo bubble team - not looking good right now

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

UK came back, let's hope they hold on to win.

[ValiantSailor]

UK, OSU, and St Louis all lost.

VS

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Luckily Penn State and Duquesne aren't even close to the bubble... Unfortunately Arkansas will likely be in after the updates.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Updated with all Thursday nights results except the Oregon vs. UCLA game that just went to overtime...

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Updated with Oregon's 2 OT win over UCLA... Not sure how the committee will view that win due to UCLA suspending their top 2 players for that game, but for RPI purposes it really helps the ducks

[Goose85]

According to bracket updates to day on CBSsports;

Teams in but still on the bubble:

Seeded 9: Colorado - Kansas State - SMU
Seeded 10: Baylor - St. Joseph - Oregon - Gonzaga
Seeded 11: Arkansas - Providence - Oklahoma State - Xavier - California
Seeded 12: Minnesota - Missouri - Southern Miss - UW Green Bay

Who has toughest games and could play themselves out?

Oklahoma State: Has three tough games left with Kansas / Kansas State / Iowa State.
Providence: After Seton Hall, has MU and Creighton.
Xavier: Creighton, Seton Hall and Villanova.
Oregon: After USC has Arizona State and Arizona
California: Arizona State, Utah and Colorado.
Baylor: After Texas Tech they have Iowa State and Kansas State.
Kansas State: Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Baylor

Last four out:
Dayton
Nebraska
Tennessee
BYU

Hopefully MU can get a win at Nova and Providence and a bunch of these teams do us a favor and lose.

[warriorfan4life]

No way in hell is Southern Miss getting an at-large. They do not have any wins over at-large caliber teams and are not outright leaders in their conference (which really blows now).

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

I couldnt find the thread where Brewcity made the case with numbers backing it for getting an at large without beating Nova. I still contend that we either need to beat Nova or win the conf tourney to get in but if I recall correctly he had some solid points.

Can someone refresh my memory a bit on this path and maybe make me feel better about our chances :) as I don't see us winning tomorrow.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

I don't see us winning tomorrow either. Zero chance in my mind. But only because we play on Sunday ;)

If we lose to 'Nova but beat Providence and SJU, we'll have a 56 RPI and 47 SOS. That's not lock territory, but our two top-50 (XU and GW) wins along with 7 top-100 wins would be right in line with other bubble teams. Go 1-1 in NYC and we'd be guaranteed another top-100 win.

Four total wins would have us in the mix, but Selection Sunday would be nail-biting time. Get another win, whether 'Nova or at the BET would most likely give us a top-25 win and we'd be top-50 RPI. A fifth win would almost certainly make us a lock.

[MU/Panther]

I like MU odds better with the game at the Wachovia Center.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Updated with last nights results and Dayton's win over Umass today and Tennessee over Vandy... so far the bubble teams are looking good today... hopefully a few lose to give MU a shot.

[Markedman]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

That site loses credibility with me when they give us a 0% chance... I think we have less than a 25% chance, but 0% isn't accurate at all.

[Goose85]

That site loses credibility with me when they give us a 0% chance... I think we have less than a 25% chance, but 0% isn't accurate at all.

If we beat Villanova tomorrow, the what do you think our percentage for an at large birth would be?

[Markedman]

Again you are not reading the site correctly...it doesn't say they have a zero percent chance to eventually get in..."In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday"


This site is about as credible as they come assuming the SC is unbaised in any given year....NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"

Performance

The original version of the Dance Card missed on more than three spots in only two seasons (2007 and 2008). Over the 15-year period from 1994 through 2008, the original Dance Card correctly predicted 476 of the 512 available at-large Tournament slots (or 93%).

Over the 9-year period (2000 through 2008) for which the original Dance Card was used since its initial development in 1999, it correctly predicted 284 out of the 307 available at-large slots (92.5%). The formula's best years were in 2001 and in 2005, when it correctly predicted 33 of the 34 available at-large slots (or 97% accuracy).

The updated version of the Dance Card, which included adjustments for historical conference-related biases found in past committee decisions, correctly predicted 35 of the 37 available at-large slots in 2012, 34 of the 37 available at-large slots in 2011, 33 of the 34 available at-large slots in 2010, and 32 of the 34 at-large slots in 2009, for an overall accuracy of 94.4% (134 out of 142) for these four years. Over the 10 years of data (1999 through 2008) on which its development was based, it would have correctly predicted 329 of the 341 available at-large Tournament slots, or 96.5% accuracy (i.e., it would have averaged just over one at-large slot missed per year).

When we removed the conference-related biases from the Dance Card to predict the 2012 selections, it correctly predicted 36 of the 37 bids that year. As a result we concluded that the 2012 committee did not follow the biases of past committees, and decided to use this "unbiased" version of the Dance Card to generate the 2013 ranking. In 2013, it perfectly predicted 37 of 37 bids, making this version 73 of 74 (or 98.6%) in the two years combined. We therefore conclude that the 2012 and 2013 committees were unbiased.

The Dance Card can only be as accurate as the Selection Committees are consistent; it is an estimate of the Selection Committees' (not the authors') decision criteria. The high level of accuracy and consistency of the model is strong evidence that the Selection Committees (which differ in composition each year) are actually quite consistent from year to year.





That site loses credibility with me when they give us a 0% chance... I think we have less than a 25% chance, but 0% isn't accurate at all.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Ah... that makes sense, then I would agree, I think if today was selection Sunday we would be viewing from the sidelines... that said to answer Goose's question I think if we beat Villanova tomorrow we have about a 40% chance of making the tournament... so far today bubble teams have won most of their games, if the teams in front of us keep winning it might be tough for us to pass them, that said I think at the end of the day if we win the games we need to win we should be okay.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Updated with current results for the day... looks like Richmond may have played themselves out today and LSU missed a big opportunity to join the discussion... Arkansas looks like they have played themselves into the "Last Four In" Category this week...Oregon looks like they will move up a bit this week also after getting lucky with UCLA suspending their top two players, they have two big games next week though against ASU and Zona... Will be real interesting to see how the night games play out, I will update late tonight and will refresh all the teams RPI's and categories after Sunday's games.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

@ESPNLunardi: OUT: Prov, Neb, StJohn, FlaSt. NEXT: Mizzou, Day, SoMiss, Marq. MORE: Gtown, LaTech, Utah, Richmond.

Lunardi has officially moved us to the next four category... We still haven't made Jerry Palm's bubble watch though, I'd imagine a win today gets us in his discussion.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Updated with yesterdays results and today's updates from Palm and Lunardi... quite a few changes today, I removed Clemson and West Virginia as they are no longer mentioned by either party. I removed Xavier as they are now firmly in with their win over Creighton and St. John's this week. Arkansas and Oregon are now in according to both of them, and Minnesota is now back on the outside along with Providence. That said there are quite a few differences on the cut line between Lunardi and Palm, between the two of them their last four in and last four out are pretty much the same teams, they just disagree with who is in or out.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

But a loss can't really move us down much can it given that nobody expects us to lose?

Or do these bracketologists take into consideration opportunities remaining on the schedule and by losing we'd be missing out on a big opportunity and have fewer opportunities remaining thus a slimmer chance of making the dance and being dropped from their list?

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I would imagine at this point, they are taking opportunity into consideration...

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

@ESPNLunardi: OUT: Prov, Neb, StJohn, FlaSt. NEXT: Mizzou, Day, SoMiss, Marq. MORE: Gtown, LaTech, Utah, Richmond.

Lunardi has officially moved us to the next four category... We still haven't made Jerry Palm's bubble watch though, I'd imagine a win today gets us in his discussion.

And something tells me we'll be moved right back out.