Phantom Warrior
05-07-2013, 12:21 AM
We keep reading about new offers to kids in the class of 2014. It seems at times as if we must have a couple of dozen offers we've extended. There are so many that I can't keep track; I don't even try.
But then I put all those offers, all those names, into perspective. Mike Brey once said to an interviewer that he figures, on average, coaches are successful on one of every six recruits they target. I also recall a couple of other coaches - though I don't remember who - pretty much agreeing with that formula.
So, using that statistical approach, if we have four openings for the Class of 2014 (Jamil, Davante, Chris, and Jake) we would need to offer approximately 24 kids just to replace them. And, if you figure in that someone, even one player, might transfer - or leave prematurely for the NBA - then the magic number increases to 30.
Both of those numbers - 24 and 30 - are a bit mind-numbing, but if one out of six is sort of the general rule of thumb, then they are right in line given four definite openings with contingency plan for five.
I have lost track of how many "offers" have been reported vis a vis Buzz/MU, but I'm guessing the number is somewhere in the teens at the very least.
Maybe someone can put together a list of the offers that have been reported. That would be helpful. In the meantime, I'm not going to worry about the Class of 2014 for even a second. It will be what it will be.
But then I put all those offers, all those names, into perspective. Mike Brey once said to an interviewer that he figures, on average, coaches are successful on one of every six recruits they target. I also recall a couple of other coaches - though I don't remember who - pretty much agreeing with that formula.
So, using that statistical approach, if we have four openings for the Class of 2014 (Jamil, Davante, Chris, and Jake) we would need to offer approximately 24 kids just to replace them. And, if you figure in that someone, even one player, might transfer - or leave prematurely for the NBA - then the magic number increases to 30.
Both of those numbers - 24 and 30 - are a bit mind-numbing, but if one out of six is sort of the general rule of thumb, then they are right in line given four definite openings with contingency plan for five.
I have lost track of how many "offers" have been reported vis a vis Buzz/MU, but I'm guessing the number is somewhere in the teens at the very least.
Maybe someone can put together a list of the offers that have been reported. That would be helpful. In the meantime, I'm not going to worry about the Class of 2014 for even a second. It will be what it will be.