Mock Selection Committee

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

So the media members are doing their mock selection committee today and they have us as the 2nd 6 seed. I thought that was interesting as I guess I'd have thought a 5 was more appropriate but I don't know that a 6 to this point is entirely off either.

[IWB]

MU will always be a seed off of the rankings - just the way it has always been.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

It's tough to say without seeing the other teams resumes... I'd love to go through a mock selection process, how fun would that be, they could even open it up to fans and charge for it.

[warriorfan4life]

I think a 6 seed is about right for us as of now. A group of solid wins, only one questionable loss, but middling road/neutral record. And honestly, I think a group of teams in that same range are slightly better teams then MU. Now to get to IWB's point, here is I how feel MU seeds have been through the years:

2002: 1-2 seeds too low
2003: fair
2006: fair
2007: low based on resume, but fair based on McNeal being out for tourney
2008: 1-2 seeds too low, should have gotten ND's 5 seed
2009: fair
2010: 1-2 seeds too high
2011: 1-2 seeds too low
2012: fair

Now, only once do I feel that we have been over seeded (2010), and 2002 definitely sticks out as being under seeded (and facing an under seeded Tulsa team to boot). If this team wants to earn a protected seed, it probably needs to go 6-3 down the stretch (5-2 in regular season, 1 win in Big East tournament).

[IWB]

Honestly - Warriorfan4life and his buddies do it every year. They are more accurate that Lunardi ever claimed to be.

There was one year they only got one wrong (which I defend), got 20 something within 1 seed and 60 within 2 seeds.

The one I defend that they were wrong on(IIRC), was that the NCAA went with UAB instead of Notre Dame. Notre Dame had a better resume, but in my mind, you had all of these schools leaving C-USA, there was no way they were going to take several schools from C-USA without a single one that was staying there.

There was also the year where there were some real question marks in the selections, and they dissected the panel and how they tied back to all of the schools that received a gift. This guy was hired by that coach years ago, this woman went to school with the AD of that program etc etc.

I will back Zuch and his crew any day when it comes to Bracketology.

Fan4Life - feel free to explain how you do it if you don't mind.....

[warriorfan4life]

We mimic the process of the NCAA committee fairly closely. We each represent a team/conference and are ineligible to vote and participate in discussions about their selection (but can answer questions about injuries and suspensions). In the past, we also focused on a few conferences like the real committee to become more knowledgeable about them, but we have gotten laxer about that in recent years. Now, just like the real committee, we have members with differing evaluation methods. Some still stick to the RPI and choose teams strictly based off of wins and losses. I personally hate the RPI and have become big in advanced stats and that in recent years, and will argue for teams that have strong KenPom rankings but not a great body of wins (St. Mary's is becoming my pet case) and also look closely at efficiency margins in conference play. In the end, we balance each other pretty well and are pretty accurate.

Also, it was 2006 and 2007 where the committee was blatant in taking of each other and their teams/affiliations. Almost every baffling decision (and there were many of them both those years) could be traced back to committee representation.

[Markedman]

Just an FYI...the mock committee only got through the 5 line because of time constraints and the NCAA seeded the rest for them.

5 or 6 sounds about right as things stand today IMO

[MayorBeluga]

So Warriorfan4life is a mock committee of the mock committee? Cool.

[warriorfan4life]

So Warriorfan4life is a mock committee of the mock committee? Cool.

We actually do the same thing the media members are doing now. We started in 2002, but may actually wind down a bit this year as everyone is a little burnt out/has other things going.

[IrwinFletcher]

One of the guys involved with this is on the Score in Chicago. I didn't hear all of the interview, but they were talking a lot about the Illini. They wound up putting them as a 5 seed and over all they were #18 on the S-Curve. The biggest reason was the road win at Gonzaga. Said it was arguably the best road win of the season by anyone, and for sure the best non-conf road win.

Seems like good wins are valued more that bad losses hurt. Bodes well as we have wins over Top 30 teams in Pitt, Gtown, UConn and UW.