A 2 vs. a 3

[MUAlphaBangura]

Disclaimer: this is not questioning the coaches and players decision making process or strategy. Just a preference question. With 4+ seconds to go in the overtime, Junior took the ball coast to coast and got a pretty good shot up to try to tie it up, and even had a fraction left as Trent almost got the tip. Would anybody preferred he stop at the 3 line to try to win the game outright. My thoughts would be to go for the win on the road. Davante was all used up. Think Vander was too. Didn't have Jamil. on the other side, Cincy lost 3 big guys, so a double overtime may have played to our advantage. Thoughts?

[MUMac]

Rule of thumb has always been when on the road, you go for the win; when at home, you go for the tie. That said, he had a good look on the drive and with Cincy's foul trouble, I would have taken the 2 at that time.

[unclejohn]

He had 4 seconds with no TO left. He went for whatever he could get.

[GOMU1104]

Rule of thumb has always been when on the road, you go for the win; when at home, you go for the tie. That said, he had a good look on the drive and with Cincy's foul trouble, I would have taken the 2 at that time.

I'm not sure this really applies in any sport other than baseball.

[dubs98]

This. the cincy guard came out on him and he was able to (i believe) cross him and had a lane. You take what is given to you for the best shot possible at that point. If cincy slacked off, then I'm fine with going for the win. they didn't and he made the right choice. just came up a bit short on that and the tip.


He had 4 seconds with no TO left. He went for whatever he could get.

[mufan2003]

With Cincy's 2 big men already fouled out (Mbodj and Nyarsuk) and then Justin Jackson fouling out in OT, I felt MU would win in double OT seeing Cincy had nobody left who could really stop Gardner in the post. I felt Gardner got the wind knocked out of him, but would have been fine in another OT. I always find it amazing when teams take a bad 3 when only down 2 at the end of the game. Cadougan was decisive and put up a shot he has made several times before, just did not go in last night.

[Nukem2]

Not so sure about Davante in A second OT. He was really hurting ( that was far more than getting the wind knocked out of him ). Ernest Eugene was applying something to his back. Whatever, DG is going to be hurting tomorrow after getting beaten upon so much last night. Hopefully his back is ok.

[MUMac]

I'm not sure this really applies in any sport other than baseball.

Not sure where you get that. I have heard it all my life from coaches and commentators. Never heard of it in baseball. In fact, I would think it applies more appropriately to other sports than baseball.

[MUMac]

This. the cincy guard came out on him and he was able to (i believe) cross him and had a lane. You take what is given to you for the best shot possible at that point. If cincy slacked off, then I'm fine with going for the win. they didn't and he made the right choice. just came up a bit short on that and the tip.

Plus, it was Junior. He does not possess a shoot the 3 first mentality. Not a strength of his.

[GOMU1104]

Not sure where you get that. I have heard it all my life from coaches and commentators. Never heard of it in baseball. In fact, I would think it applies more appropriately to other sports than baseball.

What does home field/court have to do with anything in these sports. Think about it. What does it really mean? How does that really impact the game at that point? I just don't see the logic...

In baseball, if you're in the 9th/extras on the road, you generally play for the win because there's a chance you won't get back up to bat. If you're at home, you can settle for the tie because you know you will always get another chance.

[MUMac]

What does home field/court have to do with anything in these sports. Think about it. What does it really mean? How does that really impact the game at that point? I just don't see the logic...

In baseball, if you're in the 9th/extras on the road, you generally play for the win because there's a chance you won't get back up to bat. If you're at home, you can settle for the tie because you know you will always get another chance.

You are not serious in your question, are you? If it doesn't have an impact in those sports, why do those that give odds give points for the home court? Think about that. That is the reason why you play for the win on the road.

As I said, I have heard it all my life from those whom I trust in their opinions. I am not sure I have ever heard anyone take an approach against it as you have.

[GOMU1104]

You are not serious in your question, are you? If it doesn't have an impact in those sports, why do those that give odds give points for the home court? Think about that. That is the reason why you play for the win on the road.

As I said, I have heard it all my life from those whom I trust in their opinions. I am not sure I have ever heard anyone take an approach against it as you have.

First off...there are alot of myths throughout sports that are perpetuated by commentators and coach speak that have been discounted by analysis....but that's for another discussion entirely.

And yes...I am serious with my questions. Show me some logic behind making late game decisions based one being the home/road team (other than in baseball.). Late game strategy is based on an abundance of other factors that don't include where you are playing the game.

Yes, you are right in that betting lines are impacted between 2.5-3.5 points based on home field advantage...but that is at the macro, big picture level.

There is a really good book out there, called "Scorecasting," that analyzes things including home court/field advantage. They found, through signifiant research, that the only thing that impacts HFA is unintended bias from officials.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

When do you ever play for the tie in baseball? Every team tries to score as much as possible every inning. No one is playing for the tie. That's the sport it makes the least sense in.

They talk about playing for win or time all the time in football. Never once heard it applied to baseball, probably because it's the one sport it doesn't apply to.

[MUMac]

First off...there are alot of myths throughout sports that are perpetuated by commentators and coach speak that have been discounted by analysis....but that's for another discussion entirely.

And yes...I am serious with my questions. Show me some logic behind making late game decisions based one being the home/road team (other than in baseball.). Late game strategy is based on an abundance of other factors that don't include where you are playing the game.

Yes, you are right in that betting lines are impacted between 2.5-3.5 points based on home field advantage...but that is at the macro, big picture level.

There is a really good book out there, called "Scorecasting," that analyzes things including home court/field advantage. They found, through signifiant research, that the only thing that impacts HFA is unintended bias from officials.

Difficult to have a discussion if you would summarily dismiss a comment as you had in the first paragraph. That is your bias.

Brew hit baseball on the head. I am sure you realize that in baseball they score one run at a time. Thus, a decision to play for a win or tie is moot. You continue to bat and try to score as many runs as possible. I am surprised you are sticking to this. BTW, you do realize that in baseball, you could only be playing for the lead, not the tie as the home team still has an at bat.

Anyway, as evidenced in your first paragraph referenced above, I doubt anything that anyone would say would sway you. Hold onto your points, as misguided as they may be. I will let it drop, rather than continue a boring tit for tat. Have at the last response, it will go unchallenged.

[GOMU1104]

When do you ever play for the tie in baseball? Every team tries to score as much as possible every inning. No one is playing for the tie. That's the sport it makes the least sense in.

They talk about playing for win or time all the time in football. Never once heard it applied to baseball, probably because it's the one sport it doesn't apply to.



http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9219