Jerry Palms Braketology

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Right now Marquette is not in and isn't even listed in the next 4...

[Nukem2]

Bucky not in either and that's easily our best win. Lots of work to do...! Next week's games against UConn and G'Town will tell us a lot about where this season is headed ( and, no Buzz for UConn )...........

[kneelb4zerg]

Not that any of this matters right now, but Lunardi has us in at this point I believe.

The Badgers will make the tournament and end up being a good win for us.

[Nukem2]

Lunardi's last look was on 12/11' well before the GB game. Had us as a ten seed. Will we be in for the next look...?

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

We need to get a few good wins. Right now we have no good wins and one bad loss. It would be nice if LSU ended up being a top 50 win but I don't see that happening.

[Markedman]

UW will end up being a top 50 win most likely. We will have to beat a few teams quite a bit better then them to make it though.

[MU_Iceman]

Look, I see people talking about "good wins" every year. It's nonsense really...Bottom line is...win enough games and it doesn't matter who they beat, MU will be in. Period.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Might be nonsense to you, but there are many teams who have won 20 games and been left out because of weak schedules or not enough good wins. You are kidding yourself if you think it doesn't matter.

[kneelb4zerg]

It kind of is nonsense because if they win enough BE games they will have enough quality wins to get in.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

That doesn't make it nonsense, it just means that the two go hand in hand... That is the nice part about being in the big east. However that doesn't mean that any team can just win 20 games against anyone and be in.

[Phantom Warrior]

If we win 20 games, we are almost certainly in since we will probably be 9-3 in non-conference games, meaning we would have ended up with 11 wins between the conference season and conference tournament. a record of 9-9 in conference and two wins in the tournament should be good enough. Even 8-10 in conference, along with three wins in the tournament should do it. A record of 10-8 in conference and one win in the league tournament would be even better.

I am still not sold on this team. As I said, we have not put two good halves together yet. One good half won't win many games in the Big East.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Look, I see people talking about "good wins" every year. It's nonsense really...Bottom line is...win enough games and it doesn't matter who they beat, MU will be in. Period.

This post demonstrates a clear and obvious disconnect between you and reality.

[2013UnleashTheBeast]

Good thing Jerry Palm is easily the worst of the major bracketologists out there. Although I share some concerns about this team that Phantom has raised. Keeping my fingers crossed that Mayo can fill part of what's missing. All I care is that we sneak into the tourney somehow some way this year - then the real fun begins next year!

[MU_Iceman]

That doesn't make it nonsense, it just means that the two go hand in hand... That is the nice part about being in the big east. However that doesn't mean that any team can just win 20 games against anyone and be in.


Right, but I was specifically referring to MU. Kneel made my point. Win enough games in the BE and I don't care if those wins are against Rutgers, SH, Prov, DePaul, SF, etc...they would be in.

[MU_Iceman]

This post demonstrates a clear and obvious disconnect between you and reality.


Oh really Brew?? If MU wins enough games in the Big East(let's say 11) just for arguments sake, and 9 of those come against SH, USF, @USF, Providence, @Rutgers, @Nova, @SH, DePaul, @SJU, which then leaves them with maybe two good wins(at least right now) of the remaining games I don't care who the remaining two are against, they are IN. Now, if the above listed 9 are the only games they win and they go 9-9 in the BE then yes, they probably wouldn't get in, but hence why i said if they win enough games in the BE it doesn't matter who they are against, MU will be in lock city. Period, end of discussion.

[TheSultan]

Oh really Brew?? If MU wins enough games in the Big East(let's say 11) just for arguments sake, and 9 of those come against SH, USF, @USF, Providence, @Rutgers, @Nova, @SH, DePaul, @SJU, which then leaves them with maybe two good wins(at least right now) of the remaining games I don't care who the remaining two are against, they are IN. Now, if the above listed 9 are the only games they win and they go 9-9 in the BE then yes, they probably wouldn't get in, but hence why i said if they win enough games in the BE it doesn't matter who they are against, MU will be in lock city. Period, end of discussion.

Not claiming to speak for brew, but I believe that his point is that it is not just about getting in, but it is about seeding. You want your opponents to do well because it very well could make a difference between being an 8 seed, and possibly playing a 1...or being a 6 seed and possibly playing a 3.

[MU_Iceman]

Not claiming to speak for brew, but I believe that his point is that it is not just about getting in, but it is about seeding. You want your opponents to do well because it very well could make a difference between being an 8 seed, and possibly playing a 1...or being a 6 seed and possibly playing a 3.

Yes obviously for seeding it matters, but I think the premise of the original post in this thread, and then follow up posts were that MU would struggle to get in the NCAAs this year. That's why my posts were tailored that way. If Brew was talking about seeding then yes I could see where the confusion would come in, however again, my posts are based on the simple premise that if they win enough BE games, it doesn't matter who they beat, they will be IN the NCAA tournament. Seeding be damned.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Oh really Brew?? If MU wins enough games in the Big East(let's say 11) just for arguments sake, and 9 of those come against SH, USF, @USF, Providence, @Rutgers, @Nova, @SH, DePaul, @SJU, which then leaves them with maybe two good wins(at least right now) of the remaining games I don't care who the remaining two are against, they are IN. Now, if the above listed 9 are the only games they win and they go 9-9 in the BE then yes, they probably wouldn't get in, but hence why i said if they win enough games in the BE it doesn't matter who they are against, MU will be in lock city. Period, end of discussion.

Yes, really. Because you specifically said "every year". If Marquette loses Saturday, will 11 Big East wins be enough? With a loss to UW-GB, a loss to UNCC, and their only two good wins are over a UConn team that doesn't make the field and Georgetown at home? What if we go 11-7, but lose 6 of our last 8 and fall to DePaul in the Big East Tournament? Would a 5-game losing streak and two bad non-con losses going into Selection Sunday be offset because of wins in January?

And again, every year. What if we went 6-7 in the non-con and came back to go 11-7 in Big East play but had 4 bad losses to offset our only 2 good wins? Yes, if we win 18 games in the Big East or win all the games at MSG, we will be in pretty much every year. But there are way too many variables to assume that simply winning 11 games will get us in every year.

[MU_Iceman]

Yes, really. Because you specifically said "every year". If Marquette loses Saturday, will 11 Big East wins be enough? With a loss to UW-GB, a loss to UNCC, and their only two good wins are over a UConn team that doesn't make the field and Georgetown at home? What if we go 11-7, but lose 6 of our last 8 and fall to DePaul in the Big East Tournament? Would a 5-game losing streak and two bad non-con losses going into Selection Sunday be offset because of wins in January?

And again, every year. What if we went 6-7 in the non-con and came back to go 11-7 in Big East play but had 4 bad losses to offset our only 2 good wins? Yes, if we win 18 games in the Big East or win all the games at MSG, we will be in pretty much every year. But there are way too many variables to assume that simply winning 11 games will get us in every year.


Ok first of all...they aren't losing tomm, so take that out of the equation right now. Second of all, they aren't losing to DuhPaul in the BE tourney. You have to look at this from a "realistic" point of view instead of a "could possibly but as likely as the world ending POV". It should also be noted that no team that has ever won 11 BE games has been left out.

As far as your second example...yes going 6-7 in Non conference and 11 BE wins would NOT get them in under that scenario. I don't dispute that. But the bottom line is...I say "every year" because there is NO way that MU would EVER go 6-7 in Non conference anymore. But that's stating the obvious that a 6-7 non conference wouldn't get them in. I said "every year" based on "normal" non conference results(like this year).

I guess i look at these types of things based on "realistic" or "probable" happenings, rather then trying to predict the "end of the world: type scenarios(ie losing to DePaul in the BE tourney or losing tomm).

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Ok first of all...they aren't losing tomm, so take that out of the equation right now. Second of all, they aren't losing to DuhPaul in the BE tourney. You have to look at this from a "realistic" point of view instead of a "could possibly but as likely as the world ending POV". It should also be noted that no team that has ever won 11 BE games has been left out.

As far as your second example...yes going 6-7 in Non conference and 11 BE wins would NOT get them in under that scenario. I don't dispute that. But the bottom line is...I say "every year" because there is NO way that MU would EVER go 6-7 in Non conference anymore. But that's stating the obvious that a 6-7 non conference wouldn't get them in. I said "every year" based on "normal" non conference results(like this year).

I guess i look at these types of things based on "realistic" or "probable" happenings, rather then trying to predict the "end of the world: type scenarios(ie losing to DePaul in the BE tourney or losing tomm).

Okay...first, Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon style...

NC Central beat Southern, who beat Texas A&M, who beat Washington State, who beat Idaho, who beat Green Bay, who beat Marquette. So under that, it's not impossible we lose tomorrow. Highly unlikely, but not impossible, and certainly not unrealistic.

Second, "there is NO way MU would EVER go 6-7 in non-con? Really? So this year, it's not at all possible we could have lost to...

Ohio State (had we played)
Southeastern Louisiana (2-point lead with 5:20 to play, certainly it's not implausible they could have outscored us by 3 over the remaining time)
Butler
USC (Was a 6-point game with 8:20 to play)
Florida
Wisconsin (4-point game with 5:50 to play)
Green Bay
LSU (3-point lead with 0:40 to play)

Had we lost all of those, and yes, all of those losses would have been realistic, we would be 5-8 right now. So saying "there is NO way that MU would EVER go 6-7" is not only arrogant and stupid, but also an understatement as we could have been worse than 6-7 this year had we not closed out some tight games. Just like losing to "DuhPaul" isn't unrealistic. We lost to them just a couple years back and this year's DePaul team is MUCH better than the team that beat us was.

So while you may be looking at probable, you certainly aren't only looking at realistic scenarios. And while no 11-win team has missed the tourney, a 10-6 Syracuse team did miss the tournament in 2007, and I'm pretty sure even an 11-7 Marquette team with a 17-15 overall record (6-7 non-con and loss in BET) would most likely miss the dance.

[IrwinFletcher]

UW will end up being a top 50 win most likely. We will have to beat a few teams quite a bit better then them to make it though.

I have been befuddled by Madison for years now and maybe it will happen again this season, but I don't see them recovering this year. They are currently around 140 RPI wise and their best wins are Cal and Ark, two teams that will likely tumble once conference season starts (much like LSU I fear). They will have 5 wins against teams with a 300+ RPI and their SOS in the non conf portion of the season will be around 225.

The Big10,12,14 is much stronger this year and though they once again avoid some top teams (only play IU and Michigan once) and that will deny them an opportunity for big wins.

Add in the "eye test", I just feel that they will wind up in the NIT this year and things don't look great for them moving forward.

[Nukem2]

I guess the one thing we need to consider is not having Todd ( and TJ for that matter ) has put a lot of strain on Buzz's NC rotation as he had no good sub pattern for Vander and Trent. That now changes. Todd certainly would have made a difference against UW-GB and Butler as well and would have made us more comeptitive against FL. Just think, those 2 games were determined by last second shots. If Clarke's circus shot bounces off and Jake's open 3 goes in ( still don't think they should have settled for a 3 ball), MU is 11-1 and we are all feeling a lot better. The games at the BC this week against UConn and G-Town will give us a much better feel for this team.