Can Marquette Break Even in the new Conference?

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

So knowing that our TV Deal in the current BE was $1.5 million per year, and that last year our share of the NCAA credits was another $1.44 million dollars, so total they brought in just under $3 million per school from the conference. What would it take for Marquette to keep that sort of revenue coming in with this new proposed 10 team conference? I did some calculations below to see how many NCAA credits we would need to break even every year depending on what the TV deal ends up as.

Assumed TV Deal: $1 Million Per Team

$30 million total revenue needed for school payout of $3 million
-$10 million from assumed TV deal
= $20 million of NCAA credits needed each year
/$256K for each unit
/6 for yearly average of units needed
=13 NCAA units needed each year for $3 million payout

Assumed TV Deal: $1.5 Million Per Team

$30 million total revenue needed for school payout of $3 million
-$15 million from assumed TV deal
= $15 million of NCAA credits needed each year
/$256K for each unit
/6 for yearly average of units needed
= 10 NCAA units needed each year for $3 million payout

Assumed TV Deal: $2 Million Per Team

$30 million total revenue needed for school payout of $3 million
-$20 million from assumed TV deal
= $10 million of NCAA credits needed each year
/$256K for each unit
/6 for yearly average of units needed
=6.5 NCAA units needed each year for $3 million payout

Now obviously these are all rough figures, but I would think having a 10 team league the most you could hope for would be 4 bids per year, MAYBE 5 in a good year, that means if we get a deal that pays us $1.5 Million per year from TV we are going to struggle to match our income from the league. I thought others might be interested in this, however the good news is that I think we will be better off that being with the football schools.

[BLT]

Good stuff...the conference needs at least 14 members..even if UCONN, Memphis and UC in some form I hate to say.

[warriorfan4life]

Underselling the league big time by having the ceiling at 4-5 bids. I think around 5 bids a year will be the mean, but there will be years when this league can get 7 teams in (once-twice a decade).

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Don't forget that if the team goes to 14 members you have to split that money 4 more ways... as for the 4-5 bids I find it impossible to believe that 7 teams can get in out of a 10 team league, that is just unprecedented. that would mean they would have to allow a team with a below .500 league record in, I just don't see that happening. If we went to 14 teams I could see it, but simply not happening in a 10 team league.

[warriorfan4life]

In 1990, the Big Ten got seven out of ten teams. In 1991, the Big East got seven out of nine teams in. In 1992, the Big Eight got 6 out of 8 teams in. The ACC routinely got six out of nine teams after the initial expansion to 64 teams. In a way, these are apples to oranges comparisons, but these past ratios have been proven before conferences got too big for their own good. Looking at C7 plus Xavier and Butler, as of now I would project Georgetown, Marquette, Butler, and Xavier to get in, and would not rule out St. John's (young team with lots of talent and getting much needed true PG eligible) or Nova (uneven performances at times, but solid wins over St. Joe's and Purdue and a good amount of natural talent on roster). Starting next year, I think PC and St. John's will be frequent NCAA teams under their current regimes. Either Zags or Creighton as team 10 would be another NCAA team. I hope Seton Hall and DePaul get going like PC and Johnnies have, and think Nova is returning to their successful formula in this class and beyond. Not a masochistic beast of a league like old Big East, but probably a better situation for Marquette to win meaningful conference titles and make deep NCAA runs.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I guess I stand corrected, I'm surprised by that but I guess it is possible :) ... That being said I don't think it's realistic to count on 6 or 7 every year. I think they will beat up on each other a bit. However maybe 5 is realistic every year, the key though is not just getting teams in, but getting in and advancing. The old Big East seemed to have a final 4 team pretty routinely.

[BLT]

I will say also that 70% of the BE teams or 11 teams went two years ago when MU finished 11th statistically at 9-9....but that requires the three dogs to be really bad. I don't know think with only ten teams that that will help the conference though. Still think we need more teams for this topic and others (other sport depth).

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I will do the breakout for a 12 and 14 team league later.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Assumed TV Deal: $1 Million Per Team

$36 million total revenue needed for school payout of $3 million
-$12 million from assumed TV deal
= $24 million of NCAA credits needed each year
/$256K for each unit
/6 for yearly average of units needed
=16 NCAA units needed each year for $3 million payout

Assumed TV Deal: $1.5 Million Per Team

$36 million total revenue needed for school payout of $3 million
-$18 million from assumed TV deal
= $18 million of NCAA credits needed each year
/$256K for each unit
/6 for yearly average of units needed
= 12 NCAA units needed each year for $3 million payout

Assumed TV Deal: $2 Million Per Team

$36 million total revenue needed for school payout of $3 million
-$24 million from assumed TV deal
= $12 million of NCAA credits needed each year
/$256K for each unit
/6 for yearly average of units needed
=8 NCAA units needed each year for $3 million payout

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Assumed TV Deal: $1 Million Per Team

$42 million total revenue needed for school payout of $3 million
-$14 million from assumed TV deal
= $28 million of NCAA credits needed each year
/$256K for each unit
/6 for yearly average of units needed
=18 NCAA units needed each year for $3 million payout

Assumed TV Deal: $1.5 Million Per Team

$42 million total revenue needed for school payout of $3 million
-$21 million from assumed TV deal
= $21 million of NCAA credits needed each year
/$256K for each unit
/6 for yearly average of units needed
= 14 NCAA units needed each year for $3 million payout

Assumed TV Deal: $2 Million Per Team

$42 million total revenue needed for school payout of $3 million
-$28 million from assumed TV deal
= $14 million of NCAA credits needed each year
/$256K for each unit
/6 for yearly average of units needed
= 9 NCAA units needed each year for $3 million payout

[mutpm]

Thanks for doing this, it puts into perspective what the conference needs to bring in to keep MU viable. The question that I don't know the answer to is if the TV contract would go up proportionately with the addition of teams? I would think there is a diminishing return at some point. That's why I'm in favor of a 10 team conference. If the TV contract goes up 20% by adding 2 teams or 40% by adding 4 teams, then I'm open to going past 10 teams.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

When you're talking about the TV deal, it comes down largely to quantity of content. I know we aren't really talking about going down as low as 8, but here's the numbers in terms of how many games you get depending on league size:

8 teams
14 game schedule
56 games
Tournament format: 3 days; 4 games / 2 games / 1 game

9 teams
16 game schedule
72 games
Tournament format: 4 days; 1 / 4 / 2 / 1

10 teams
18 game schedule
90 games
Tournament format: 4 days; 2 / 4 / 2 / 1

12 teams (2 divisions)
16 game schedule
96 games
Tournament format: 4 days; 4 / 4 / 2 / 1

12 teams
18 game schedule
108 games
Tournament format: 4 days; 4 / 4 / 2 / 1

14 teams
18 game schedule
126 games
Tournament format: 5 days; 2 / 4 / 4 / 2 / 1

14 teams
20 game schedule
140 games
Tournament format: 5 days; 2 / 4 / 4 / 2 / 1

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

I agree that is really depends on what the TV deal dictates, and I'm sure the C7 are all having that discussion now. It's very important to consider what effect adding two teams has on that deal. That is why I asked IWB yesterday what the timeline for adding teams was because I assume a TV deal is a priority but I would assume TV execs want to see what teams come before they commit.

[BLT]

Thanks BW4P...great stuff....I think it is better to go slow in adding beyond the ten is the take-away...timing is so up in the air, that there is plenty of time to add as those teams will always be open to jump. The network deal will decide the outcome.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

We have to get atleast 10 teams in place though before we get a media deal nailed down. Then once we get a media deal it's important to make sure we can add money if we add the right teams.