NBA Finals Predictions

[CaribouJim]

Last year I correctly picked that the Cavs would beat the Warriors in 7 games - something just wasn't right with the Warriors going into the finals so I was fairly confident that the Cavs would pull off the upset.

This year I don't have that type of feeling for either of the two teams - both teams are on a roll and pretty healthy so the choice is harder this year, but going to go with the Warriors in 7 although I will root against all things Draymond Green. Whoever wins, I'm confident it will be entertaining again.

Anyone else care to weigh in?

[Kidd Karma]

Last year, Curry was slowed by his knee injury he suffered earlier in the playoffs. Supposedly it was the same knee injury that caused Durant to miss 20 games this season. IN addition, rest could have been a factor, GSW was taken to the distance against Durant's OKC Thunder in the Western Finals, this year 4 game sweep....the major injury Steve Kerr's neck/back, probably will be out of the series. Draymond's suspension was the key last year. Up 3-1, momentum on your side.....it just killed the momentum. This year, I think Cleveland missing Delly is going to be a big loss for them. Delly had a way of getting under Curry's skin, for 4 minute bursts in both halves, that is huge, you like to disrupt great offensive players. A year ago, when GSW needed Harrison Barnes to hit maybe 2 more shots....he didn't and GSW didn't. You replace him with KD or basically knock Klay Thompson into the Barnes role as spot up shooter, it's a huge upgrade. KD defensively has been the last line of defense as well, so it allows GSW to either use Pachulia or insert Iguodala/Livingston, a nice option to have. On paper, you're looking at GSW 4-1, or 4-2....but the intangible factor....Lebron tells me the series goes 7. Would love to see Cleveland pull the upset, but GSW's depth, is straight up crazy.

[mufan2003]

These are clearly the top 2 teams (Golden State 12-0 and Cleveland 12-1). In terms of fatigue, there should be no excuses. Both teams have been able to get plenty of rest during the playoffs and a full week of rest before the Finals begin. The Finals schedule also has 2 days of rest between games (except between games 3 and 4). Along with Curry's nagging injury last season, was Golden State burnt out in going after and achieving the regular season record of 73 wins? Maybe just an excuse, but they looked worse as the Finals progressed last year.

When LeBron is dialed in, he is incredible. Best player in the Finals and in the NBA. That being said, I like the addition of Durant and to a much lesser extent, Pachulia and McGee to help keep Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love off of the boards when Cleveland goes big. I think Golden State wins. Tempted to say in 6 games, but the strength of both teams leads me to believe it will go a full 7 games again.

[MKE_GoldenEagleFan]

Golden State in 6

[Goose85]

I am hoping for the Cavs in 7.
Seems that Love is more integrated into the team and Irving has really looked good.

I also don't wand KD to get the ring this year.

[MUfan12]

GSW in 6.

[mufansince72]

Golden State in 5 - I hate Lebron more than I hate Draymond.

[mufansince72]

It will be interesting to see what kind of adjustments Cleveland makes in game 2.
They seemed completely over matched and that game could have easily been a 40 or more point blowout if GS wasn't missing bunnies at the rim and Klay Thompson could hit a shot.
The reason I picked GS in 5 is because I honestly believe that Cleveland is a terrible defensive team. On the other hand, GS is an excellent defensive team. Lebron, Kyrie and Love are not good individual defenders. They have been winning in the east because of their offense. Now they are up against a team that plays very good defense and has as many, if not more offensive weapons.

[mufansince72]

I have been saying this all year, but 2017 Durant is better than 2017 Lebron.

[mufan2003]

I have been saying this all year, but 2017 Durant is better than 2017 Lebron.

I still would take LeBron over Durant. Durant has more talent around him. Irving and Love need to play much better for Cleveland to have a chance.

[mufansince72]

I know this will shock some of you, but Lebron is no longer a good defensive player. He also has a lot of turnovers. Cleveland in fact was in the bottom third in the NBA in defense this year, and were one of the worst in transition defense. He is still a great offensive player, but he is no longer a complete player, and that is why I say Durant is better. It wouldn't matter if he was playing in OKC, GS, or Orlando. He is just a better all around player in 2017 than Lebron, I actually think I would rather have Durant and Kawhi over Lebron.

[Kidd Karma]

I know this will shock some of you, but Lebron is no longer a good defensive player. He also has a lot of turnovers. Cleveland in fact was in the bottom third in the NBA in defense this year, and were one of the worst in transition defense. He is still a great offensive player, but he is no longer a complete player, and that is why I say Durant is better. It wouldn't matter if he was playing in OKC, GS, or Orlando. He is just a better all around player in 2017 than Lebron, I actually think I would rather have Durant and Kawhi over Lebron.

Agreed, I'd go with Durant over LBJ. OKC was one game away from last year's Finals, a missed crotch kick. Perfect piece defensively as well as the goalie. He's altered so many shots down there as well. Klay on the perimeter, and Durant at the cup. So much for parity in the NBA for at least the next 2-3 years......Adam Silver might as well just print Golden State on the next few Larry O'Briens.

[Goose85]

Can Durant take a team to the finals without any other stars on the team? Can he be a one man show?
Before saying Durant is better than LeBron, I'd like to see how he does if Curry and Thompson were out for multiple games.

[mufansince72]

Can Durant take a team to the finals without any other stars on the team? Can he be a one man show?
Before saying Durant is better than LeBron, I'd like to see how he does if Curry and Thompson were out for multiple games.

Can Lebron? The day and age of one player leading a team to the finals seem to be over. Who was the last team to even go to the NBA finals without at least two superstars on the roster? The answer is probably Lebron in 2007. However that has nothing to do with the fact many people believe in 2017 Durant is a better player than 2017 James.

[Goose85]

Can Lebron? The day and age of one player leading a team to the finals seem to be over. Who was the last team to even go to the NBA finals without at least two superstars on the roster? The answer is probably Lebron in 2007. However that has nothing to do with the fact many people believe in 2017 Durant is a better player than 2017 James.

That may be true, but I'm not sure Durant has ever been by far the focal point of any team he has been on to date. Westbrook and Harden - the Westbrook at OKC. GS has been in the finals the past two years without him, so it's not like he somehow elevated GS, they were up 2-0 last year too, so hard to say that he has all of a sudden elevated to the best player on the planet. Is he stopping James defensively? James in the two games has averaged 28.5 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists. From a stats standpoint doesn't seem like anyone is stopping James on D. Is Durant considered a better defender than James?

If you were starting a team and had to choose between the two players and your investment depended on success next season, would Durant be the pick over James? It might be, I don't know, but if I had to win next year I'd take James.

[mufansince72]

That may be true, but I'm not sure Durant has ever been by far the focal point of any team he has been on to date. Westbrook and Harden - the Westbrook at OKC. GS has been in the finals the past two years without him, so it's not like he somehow elevated GS, they were up 2-0 last year too, so hard to say that he has all of a sudden elevated to the best player on the planet. Is he stopping James defensively? James in the two games has averaged 28.5 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists. From a stats standpoint doesn't seem like anyone is stopping James on D. Is Durant considered a better defender than James?

If you were starting a team and had to choose between the two players and your investment depended on success next season, would Durant be the pick over James? It might be, I don't know, but if I had to win next year I'd take James.

To answer your question, I would say that Durant is the more efficient player. Better shooter, lower turnovers and a better defensive player. If I had to win next year, and my choices were only Durant and Lebron, and I had to pick TODAY. I would probably choose Durant as I know who the key pieces will be on Golden State next year. I have this feeling that if Cleveland gets destroyed in this series that there will be an extreme makeover to that team. I could see them doing something stupid like trading for Carmelo Anthony, which in my opinion would make them worse.

Let me ask you a question. If Lebron played in the West instead of the East, how many finals would he have went to, and would we still think of him the same as we do now? I think a reasonable assumption would be that he would have only three finals appearances rather than 7 straight.

[mufan2003]

Durant has been, without a doubt, the Finals MVP through 2 games. However, I still think LeBron is the best player in the NBA (and I am cheering for Golden State). LeBron, Durant and Curry have been great through the first 2 games. Irving needs to step up his game. A good article on this point:

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/06/06/game-3-finals-preview-cavaliers-kyrie-irving-warriors

[mufan2003]

So far, the NBA Finals have the highest ratings since 1998 (Jordan's last title).

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/06/05/nba-finals-ratings-most-watched-jordan-1998

[Goose85]

To answer your question, I would say that Durant is the more efficient player. Better shooter, lower turnovers and a better defensive player. If I had to win next year, and my choices were only Durant and Lebron, and I had to pick TODAY. I would probably choose Durant as I know who the key pieces will be on Golden State next year. I have this feeling that if Cleveland gets destroyed in this series that there will be an extreme makeover to that team. I could see them doing something stupid like trading for Carmelo Anthony, which in my opinion would make them worse.

Let me ask you a question. If Lebron played in the West instead of the East, how many finals would he have went to, and would we still think of him the same as we do now? I think a reasonable assumption would be that he would have only three finals appearances rather than 7 straight.

I meant if you were another team, not GS or Clev, and could only have one star player and needed to win, would it be Durant? Can he carry a team on his own as the star? He might be able to do so, I don't know. I will watch game 3 to see if he can stop James before I would say he is the top defender.

West has been better from a depth standpoint, no doubt. But I think the Heat and the Cavs would have been fine. Not sure about 7 straight, but still a top team.
I think East or West, James would still be considered one of the best players ever and a top candidate for player of the year almost every year.

[mufansince72]

I think for Cleveland to win a game or two in this series they have to change their style of play. Game 2 they tried to play fast against GS. In my opinion that is a mistake. I think they need to slow the game down and make it look like a Utah Jazz game. Hold the ball until about 5 seconds left in the shot clock. Then give it to Lebron do drive to the hole. That way Lebron can rest for 19 seconds on offense rather than on the defensive end of the floor. Slowing the transition game down by holding the ball will also leave Lebron fresher in the third and fourth quarter. In summary, to have any chance, they have to play slow and physical in my opinion. They can't beat them by trying to run with them.

[mufan2003]

Give Durant the Finals MVP now. Wow!

[mufansince72]

Fits my narrative, so I will go with it. Lebron disappeared in the second half. Durant scores about 9 in the last two minutes to give Golden State the win. A new king is born.

[CaribouJim]

Spread is 8 tonight and I'm assuming the Warriors will pull it out, but if they don't it will make for an interesting game 6 and the Warriors might start having 2016 nightmares. At least that is what I am hoping for tonight strictly from an entertainment perspective.

[Goose85]

Spread is 8 tonight and I'm assuming the Warriors will pull it out, but if they don't it will make for an interesting game 6 and the Warriors might start having 2016 nightmares. At least that is what I am hoping for tonight strictly from an entertainment perspective.

Cavs had game 3 and choked it away down the stretch. Hopefully the Cavs pull it out tonight to make things interesting.

[mufan2003]

I am cheering for the Warriors in the series, but agree it would certainly make things interesting going back to Cleveland 3-2. I have found it amusing on the Scout board, some think the NBA is fixed and that they deliberately officiate games differently. Golden State got in foul trouble in game 4 because they came out flat, Barkley said as much on NBATV in the post-game. Steve Kerr alluded to the fact that his team was awful defensively (which leads to being out of position and having to foul). I think Golden State wraps it up tonight.

[CaribouJim]

I am cheering for the Warriors in the series, but agree it would certainly make things interesting going back to Cleveland 3-2. I have found it amusing on the Scout board, some think the NBA is fixed and that they deliberately officiate games differently. Golden State got in foul trouble in game 4 because they came out flat, Barkley said as much on NBATV in the post-game. Steve Kerr alluded to the fact that his team was awful defensively (which leads to being out of position and having to foul). I think Golden State wraps it up tonight.

I saw that conspiracy theory thread - don't believe one iota of it. Doddsy is a great guy, but he has a tendency to see things that aren't there.

[CaribouJim]

Does Danny Crawford ref EVERY televised NBA game?

[mufan2003]

Great article by David Aldridge on how GS built their team (good drafting but some good luck as well). Curry (7th pick 2009), Thompson (11th pick 2011), Draymond Green (2nd round pick 2012). Steph Curry signs 4 year/$44 million extension in 2012, while he was injury prone. Then the new TV deal at just the right time:

"Then, the Players’ Union rejected the “smoothing” proposal that the league offered in 2015, which would have spread out the increases from the new $24 billion television deal over several years. Instead of a gradual increase in the salary cap, the cap leapt astronomically in 2016 -- from $70 million in 2015 to $94.1 million last summer. And that massive increase gave the Warriors the cap room needed to offer Durant a max contract."

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/06/12/morning-tip-rest-nba-prepares-combat-golden-state-warriors-cleveland-cavaliers

[mufan2003]

Bucks had the 10th pick in 2011, traded down to #19 and drafted Tobias Harris. Could have had Klay Thompson at #10. Ouch.

[CaribouJim]

Great article by David Aldridge on how GS built their team (good drafting but some good luck as well). Curry (7th pick 2009), Thompson (11th pick 2011), Draymond Green (2nd round pick 2012). Steph Curry signs 4 year/$44 million extension in 2012, while he was injury prone. Then the new TV deal at just the right time. [/url]

Jae was picked right before Draymond - both obviously good, if not great, value picks.

[CaribouJim]

Bucks had the 10th pick in 2011, traded down to #19 and drafted Tobias Harris. Could have had Klay Thompson at #10. Ouch.

Looking forward to the NBA draft - the only draft I watch - like that you can watch the whole thing in one night. Will miss this year not having that nervous feeling waiting for an MU guy to get drafted.

[mufan2003]

Jae was picked right before Draymond - both obviously good, if not great, value picks.

Absolutely, and the Bucks made a great 2nd round pick last year in Brogdon.

[Goose85]

Looking forward to the NBA draft - the only draft I watch - like that you can watch the whole thing in one night. Will miss this year not having that nervous feeling waiting for an MU guy to get drafted.

It will be a crazy young draft, which will be interesting. Of the top 10 picks (using draft express as an example), the first nine are all frosh with the 10th pick being a foreign player who is actually younger than any of the first nine. One mock draft yes, but most have similar outlook for the top guys.

I really think it will be interesting to watch, starting with Lonzo Ball, especially if the Lakers pass. Lakers may now be interested in Josh Jackson, but then again everyone is smoke screening now. Luke Kennard was a guy I thought would be a choice available for the Bucks, but he now seems to be moving up in the draft.

Who is there for the Bucks - seems like a lot of center types. Will it be Ferguson? One of the UCLA guys? A power forward? Would you take Kennard if he is there when Bucks pick?

Some interesting second round guys this year too. Who will be the 2017 Malcom Brogdan? A few guys I think have a shot are Thornwell, Sumner, Hart, Brooks, and Mason (along with guys falling out of first round).

[mufansince72]

Refresh my memory, couldn't the Bucks have had Curry, but chose Monte Ellis instead in the Bogut deal?

[Kidd Karma]

Refresh my memory, couldn't the Bucks have had Curry, but chose Monte Ellis instead in the Bogut deal?

Ha could have had Thompson as well.....the old NBA guard in Kohl/Hammond went for the sure thing in Ellis rather then Curry.....safe gamble given the ankles on Curry at the time, 26 games played in 2012, underwent surgery on the ankle same week of the Ellis trade.

http://journaltimes.com/sports/basketball/bucks-beat-milwaukee-could-have-had-curry-thompson/article_6a9c8ba2-77fe-5d6f-a009-1b57861ad0fe.html