Kind of Interesting

[Phantom Warrior]

Quite few years ago, I think when the Amigos were seniors but not sure, someone on a different Big East team's Scout board posted some data that I found pretty interesting. The post said that it is incredibly rare for any guards in the Big East (old BE) to become starters (or at least earn starter's minutes) as juniors or seniors - that almost every starting guard in the conference became a starter (or earned starter's minutes) either his freshman or sophomore year - with most of those being freshman.

Anyway, I wondered what the situation was this past season with the new, streamlined BE. So I did a bit of research. There were 20 players who were pretty much full-time starters at either point or 2 guard last season. So, how many of those 20 starting guards became starters either their freshman or sophomore year? Less that half? Half? Two thirds? Three fourths? The answer may surprise most posters. Let's look at each BE team alphabetically.

Butler:
Jones started at point for most of the year, especially after Lewis was injured. Jones started his career at Butler as a 2 guard and averaged 27.8 mpg as a freshman, 3rd highest on the team.
Dunham started as shooting guard as a freshman and averaged 26.1 mpg, 4th highest on the team. (Remember, Jones sat out a year, so Jones and Dunham were freshmen different years.)

Creighton:
Watson played at BU as a freshman, where he averaged 29.5 mpg, 3rd highest on the team his first year. Would he have started on a BE team as a frosh? Good question.
Zierden became a starter as a sophomore when he averaged 27.9 mpg, which was second highest on the team.

DePaul:
Garrett started as a freshman when he averaged 29.4 mpg, third highest on the team.
Cain started last year as a freshman and averaged 28.3 mpg, second highest on the team.

Georgetown:
Smith-Rivera was a part-time starter as a freshman and averaged 25.5 mpg, fifth highest on the team.
Peak also generally started as a freshman and averaged 25.3 mpg, third highest on the team.

MARQUETTE: (The situation at MU is a bit less straightforward in terms of personnel.)
Duane: Duane averaged 28.5 mpg as a freshman, but most fans would say he probably played the 3 more than the 2 with Derrick at point and Carlino at the 2. Last year as a sophomore,, he gave up his starting slot but still averaged 28.5 mpg (fourth highest on the team, so either way, he fits the profile.
Haanif: As a freshman he started part of the season at point guard, but he probably averaged only around 16 mpg at the point, but he did average 29.5 mpg, second highest on the team.
Traci played more mpg at point than anyone else on the team as a freshman and averaged 23.9 mpg (fifth highest on the team.)

Providence:
Dunn fought injuries as a freshman but still averaged 28.5 mpg, fifth highest on the team.
Lindsey started 17 games as the 2 guard last year as a sophomore and finished with an average of 26.1 mpg, fourth on the team.
Cartwright started only 10 games last year as a sophomore, but he ended in a virtual tie with Junior Lomomba in terms of playing time with 24..2 mpg.

Seton Hall:
Whitehead started as the 2 guard as a freshman and averaged 27.8 mpg, third on the team, then started atg point last year.
Carrington averaged 25.0 mpg as a freshman two years ago, fifth highest on the team, and then started at the 2 guard last season as a sophomore.

St. John's:
Mussini averaged 29.3 ppg as point guard as a freshman, highest on the team.

Villanova:
Arcidiacono started at point guard as a freshman and averaged 34.0 mpg, highest on the team.
Brunson started as a freshman and averaged 24.0 mpg, fourth highest on the team.

Xavier:
Sumner started this year as a red-shirt freshman and averaged 25.9 mpg, third highest on the team.
Davis started as a red-shirt sophomore and averaged 26.9 mpg, third highest on the team.

So, 19 of the 20 players (95%) who regularly started at guard or who earned starter's minutes at guard became starters - or earned starter's minutes - as freshmen or sophomores. What's more, 15 of the 20 (75%) became starting guards in the BE as freshmen.

I don't know about anyone else, but I find those figures astonishing.

A lot of those players came out of high school as Top 100 recruits: Dunham, Smith-Rivera, Peak, Duane, Dunn, Lindsey, Whitehead, Arcidiacono, Brunson, and Sumner (if memory serves), but many were not, like Jones, Watson, Zierden, Cain, Traci, Carrington, Mussini, and Davis.

Just shows to go......

[TheSultan]

That really is a fascinating study. Thanks for putting that together.

I wouldn't get too hung up on the 3 v. 2 regarding Duane. He's a guard. When Derrick and Carlino were on the floor, they were in a three guard offense.

[Alan Bykowski, "brewcity77"]

Great stuff, very interesting. Will be interesting to see what kind of minutes Howard plays this year.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

If I'm understanding your findings correctly, this would indicate that if you're a guard who hasn't garnered starting time in his first two seasons that it may be in your best interest to leave the program as the odds are stacked against you of ever becoming a starter. Is that a fair statement based on the numbers presented?

[Nukem2]

If I'm understanding your findings correctly, this would indicate that if you're a guard who hasn't garnered starting time in his first two seasons that it may be in your best interest to leave the program as the odds are stacked against you of ever becoming a starter. Is that a fair statement based on the numbers presented?
Seems that way, though Derrick Wilson defied those odds. Then again.....? Yes he was the best available, but that does tell us something here.

[Goose85]

looks like the Big East has done well recruiting guards.
Or maybe guards come into college more ready to contribute.

Is Dunn the only one to leave early recently?

I would think Rowsey would fit that scenario too, even though he didn't start or play for MU as a frosh / soph.


Thanks for putting this together Phantom Warrior, pretty interesting.

[Nukem2]

looks like the Big East has done well recruiting guards.
Or maybe guards come into college more ready to contribute.

Is Dunn the only one to leave early recently?

I would think Rowsey would fit that scenario too, even though he didn't start or play for MU as a frosh / soph.


Thanks for putting this together Phantom Warrior, pretty interesting.Dunn, though, did graduate.

[Phantom Warrior]

Also consider that the only team last year that did not have two starting guards that started as freshmen and/or sophomores was St. John, but that St. John was a very, very strange case last year. That being said, I think that this year the Johnnies will have Mussini start in the back court along with LoVett, who will be a red-shirt freshman. Had LoVett been eligible last year, my guess is that they would have started together, and it would have been 20 out of 20 - a rather nifty 100%.

As far as Derrick, he was definitely an anomaly, but don't forget that his back-court partner was Jake, who was not even on scholarship when he transferred to MU. Between them Derrick and Jake played more than 60 mpg.