Some Alarming Numbers To Ponder

[Phantom Warrior]

O.K. Last year there were over 700 transfers, not sure of the exact number, but between 700 and 800. And, from all reports, that number has been increasing steadily the past several years and should continue to increase. Let's say this year the final number is close to 800, which might be a tad high, but who knows?

Figure there are 351 teams in D-1. Let's say the average roster number is 12. Many have a full 13, but many others are at 11. That comes to roughly 4,200 players.

Let's say 25% of those 4,200 are seniors and have used up their eligibility. That comes to 1,050, leaving 3,150 players who are eligible to return to their team. A few of those 3,150 will enter the NBA draft, while some (probably not many) who were fourth-year juniors will simply decide to move on with their lives, maybe play overseas for pay. So let's say that we are now looking at roughly 3,100 players.

However, let's now consider that of those 3,100, roughly 600 have already transferred (as non-grad transfers) the previous year and had to sit out the previous season. Almost none of those will transfer, sit out a season, and then immediately transfer again. So, of those 3,100, let's lop off another 600, which puts us at 2,500.

But wait, that same process also happened the year before, and most kids transfer after their freshman or sophomore year, rather than their junior year (though a few, like Steve Taylor) do. So, if 100 kids transferred after their junior year two years ago, they are out of the picture, leaving about 500 who transferred two year earlier but still have eligibility. So, now we're down to maybe 2,000 players who are still playing at their original school, have not used up their eligibility, and have not already transferred and are, therefore, unlikely to transfer again (though, again, a very few do - like Reinhardt, for example).

Now, let's return to that projected number of maybe as many as 800 transfers this season, only now it's out of 2,000 - those who can simply return to their school and have not already transferred.

That, ladies and gentlemen, comes to a 40% transfer rate...per year!

My estimated figures, could, of course, be off somewhat, but that doesn't matter. Even if they are, maybe the reality is 35%, meaning one in three players transfer instead of 2 out of 5.

Whatever the actual data, that is a frightening picture, one that fans will have to adjust to.

[TheSultan]

Unless you can tell me what results from these transfers in terms of their basketball or academic situations, it would be hard for me to call this either "alarming" or "frightening."

Look at Reinhardt. Transferred as an undergraduate from UNLV. Earned his undergraduate degree and undoubtedly had success on the basketball court at USC. Is transferring to Marquette as a graduate. Was any of that really bad?

Now if they go to places where they run out of eligibility and are short of a degree, I would agree.

[Phantom Warrior]

I am not asserting that it is bad for individual players. I think it is bad for the game itself as it leads to significant instability on rosters.

It also becomes another variable - a crucial variable - coaches must take into consideration when trying to build or maintain their program.

There used to be two recruiting periods, one ending in November and one in April. Now there are three. And the recruiting of transfers has become as intense as the recruiting of high school and prep school players.

Of even greater concern is that coaches can not assume that players will return. For quite some time it has not been unusual for guys who were not getting playing time to look for the proverbial greener pasture in order to get increased playing time. But the bail-out rate was nowhere near what it is now. But on top of that, even starters are opting to transfer.

In 2002 MU fans were shocked when ODB transferred after being a starter for two years. Yet today MU fans have been expressing concern that JJ, Traci, Duane, or even Haanif might transfer even though all of them were either regular starters or got starters' minutes or close to starters' minutes.

The dramatic increase in the number of transfers in many cases has been a positive development for individual players, especially players at mid-major programs who think they can play at the high-major level. But look at the impact on the team/program that can bring about. Take the situation at Drake, for example. They are losing one of their starters - Abrahamson - who was their second leading scorer - as well as Dominick O., who was probably their starting center this coming year as well as the two years after that. So how do Drake's prospects for this coming year look now that they are losing two key players?

For that matter, how much might Rowsey have helped UNC-Asheville last season? The Bulldogs were 22-11 going into the Big Dance, but imagine if their leading scorer had stuck around.

That same scenario is playing out at schools across the country, which in my mind, is not healthy for the game as a whole. Do some teams end up benefiting from all this movement? Well Iowa State certainly has. And Creighton has as well. Watson and Huff both had significant impacts on the Blue Jays last season and probably will again this year. Good for Creighton. Tough break for BU and New Mexico.

When 35% to 40% of players are leaving their program each year, the overall impact can not be positive. Looking ahead, in a couple of years will that transfer number jump to nearly 1,000? Will that transfer percentage continue to climb - to 45%? 50%? Seems ridiculous, but a few years ago 40% seemed equally ridiculous.

[Gato78]

I look at the Steve Taylor Jr. situation and wonder if anyone will ever look long term--especially the parents. I had the chance to Meet and talk to STJ twice when MU held a mentors hip type of evening at the Al run by Adriane Ridgeway. STJ was very impressive and my thought was that he will have a very good career outside of basketball. It is obvious he would not make a living--or only a modest living--in basketball. In my opinion his transfer hurt him in the non-basketball part of his life. He is at Toledo, a step down obviously. He has essentially lost the MU "network" because he won't finish at MU and won't be an MU grad. It is unlikely he will avail himself of many opportunities as a Toledo grad since he will only have been there 2 years and only one as a player. If he had stayed at MU, he would have a brighter future in business etc. So instead of staying and graduating, despite not being a star, he will be in a kind of no man's land as far as his post college allegiances. He is still likely to be successful but he won't be coming back as a grad like many do and who are all honored by us alums. Long term mistake in my view.

[KMWTRUCKS]

If you are going to br successful keeping players you 9-10 man rotation even if it costs u a game or 2. IMO

[Nukem2]

I look at the Steve Taylor Jr. situation and wonder if anyone will ever look long term--especially the parents. I had the chance to Meet and talk to STJ twice when MU held a mentors hip type of evening at the Al run by Adriane Ridgeway. STJ was very impressive and my thought was that he will have a very good career outside of basketball. It is obvious he would not make a living--or only a modest living--in basketball. In my opinion his transfer hurt him in the non-basketball part of his life. He is at Toledo, a step down obviously. He has essentially lost the MU "network" because he won't finish at MU and won't be an MU grad. It is unlikely he will avail himself of many opportunities as a Toledo grad since he will only have been there 2 years and only one as a player. If he had stayed at MU, he would have a brighter future in business etc. So instead of staying and graduating, despite not being a star, he will be in a kind of no man's land as far as his post college allegiances. He is still likely to be successful but he won't be coming back as a grad like many do and who are all honored by us alums. Long term mistake in my view.
Yes, that could well be a very bad choice. Hope he does ok as he does seem to be a solid young guy. But, sometimes people just make bad choices. Such is life.

[Phantom Warrior]

On the other hand, Ican certainly understand ST's motivation in transferring.

He is not a 5, and Luke was going to get 28-30 mpg, and there was a good chance Matt would beat out ST as the primary back up anyway.

He is primarily a 4, but he sure as hell was not going to beat out Henry. At the very least HE was going to get 30 mpg. As it turns out he averaged 33.5 mpg. Even if Henry played 10-12 mpg at the 5 when Luke was out, at most St might have averaged 14-15 mpg as the primary back up at the 4. And many games he might have ended up getting single-digit minutes.

Since ST is also not a 3 - either offensively or defensively, and would almost certainly have gotten zero minutes at the 3, he was looking at very limited mpg as a senior. By transferring to a program like Toledo, he may very well get 25-30 mpg and become a primary option on offense. Toledo loses its best front-court player - Boothe - who averaged 19+ ppg and 9+ rpg.

In terms of just basketball, ST probably made a smart decision.

[Nukem2]

On the other hand, Ican certainly understand ST's motivation in transferring.

He is not a 5, and Luke was going to get 28-30 mpg, and there was a good chance Matt would beat out ST as the primary back up anyway.

He is primarily a 4, but he sure as hell was not going to beat out Henry. At the very least HE was going to get 30 mpg. As it turns out he averaged 33.5 mpg. Even if Henry played 10-12 mpg at the 5 when Luke was out, at most St might have averaged 14-15 mpg as the primary back up at the 4. And many games he might have ended up getting single-digit minutes.

Since ST is also not a 3 - either offensively or defensively, and would almost certainly have gotten zero minutes at the 3, he was looking at very limited mpg as a senior. By transferring to a program like Toledo, he may very well get 25-30 mpg and become a primary option on offense. Toledo loses its best front-court player - Boothe - who averaged 19+ ppg and 9+ rpg.

In terms of just basketball, ST probably made a smart decision.He is not going to be apro here or overseas, so it's not just basketball. Unfortunately.

[Gato78]

On the other hand, Ican certainly understand ST's motivation in transferring.

He is not a 5, and Luke was going to get 28-30 mpg, and there was a good chance Matt would beat out ST as the primary back up anyway.

He is primarily a 4, but he sure as hell was not going to beat out Henry. At the very least HE was going to get 30 mpg. As it turns out he averaged 33.5 mpg. Even if Henry played 10-12 mpg at the 5 when Luke was out, at most St might have averaged 14-15 mpg as the primary back up at the 4. And many games he might have ended up getting single-digit minutes.

Since ST is also not a 3 - either offensively or defensively, and would almost certainly have gotten zero minutes at the 3, he was looking at very limited mpg as a senior. By transferring to a program like Toledo, he may very well get 25-30 mpg and become a primary option on offense. Toledo loses its best front-court player - Boothe - who averaged 19+ ppg and 9+ rpg.

In terms of just basketball, ST probably made a smart decision.


But my point is that it isn't always about basketball. There are other elements that play in which should make the athlete and parents evaluate the post school life and advancement. STJ's case is truly a story about how that element of the student-athlete part of the equation is jeopardized for short term glory. The game always ends--for some earlier than others. It ended for everyone reading this board--just likely a bit earlier. And it doesn't change the fact that every athlete at almost every level needs a strong plan B.

[MUAlphaBangura]

On the other hand, Ican certainly understand ST's motivation in transferring.

He is not a 5, and Luke was going to get 28-30 mpg, and there was a good chance Matt would beat out ST as the primary back up anyway.

He is primarily a 4, but he sure as hell was not going to beat out Henry. At the very least HE was going to get 30 mpg. As it turns out he averaged 33.5 mpg. Even if Henry played 10-12 mpg at the 5 when Luke was out, at most St might have averaged 14-15 mpg as the primary back up at the 4. And many games he might have ended up getting single-digit minutes.

Since ST is also not a 3 - either offensively or defensively, and would almost certainly have gotten zero minutes at the 3, he was looking at very limited mpg as a senior. By transferring to a program like Toledo, he may very well get 25-30 mpg and become a primary option on offense. Toledo loses its best front-court player - Boothe - who averaged 19+ ppg and 9+ rpg.

In terms of just basketball, ST probably made a smart decision.

Jae wasn't a 5, Jamil wasn't a 5, Lazar wasn't a 5, but they all got plenty of minutes and were very productive playing the 5 at times. As it turns out, Steve would have gotten plenty of minutes at the 4 or 5 as Luke couldn't stay on the court. No way on God's green earth does Matt beat out Steve for playing time. In fact, Steve probably screwed Matt by leaving as that scenario would have allowed Matt to redshirt. Think of Matt coming in next year with a full 4 years of eligibility left. I agree with Gato that this was a mistake for Steve both on and off the court. Hurt himself and the team.

[TheSultan]

But my point is that it isn't always about basketball. There are other elements that play in which should make the athlete and parents evaluate the post school life and advancement. STJ's case is truly a story about how that element of the student-athlete part of the equation is jeopardized for short term glory. The game always ends--for some earlier than others. It ended for everyone reading this board--just likely a bit earlier. And it doesn't change the fact that every athlete at almost every level needs a strong plan B.


You're making it sound like he transferred from Harvard to some local technical college. If he would have been successful post-basketball had he stayed at MU, he will be successful graduating from Toledo.

He had an extra year to work on his degree. Perhaps he will even begin graduate school under scholarship. And he gets to play a more significant role on a basketball team, which is his passion.

Telling a kid to give that up because of some future benefits that may or may not ever materialize is a tough thing to do.

[Gato78]

So let's work this from a different angle and a bit to the extreme but with the same principles in play. Let's say a kid has an offer to play hoops at a Division III school. Has to pay his own way but get's to indulge his passion. He will get a fine education. That same kid gets into Harvard and, because of the Harvard sliding tuition scale, has to pay about the same to go to Harvard but he cannot play hoops. Should he indulge his passion at the D III level or go to Harvard for the long term benefit of that degree?

[TheSultan]

So let's work this from a different angle and a bit to the extreme but with the same principles in play. Let's say a kid has an offer to play hoops at a Division III school. Has to pay his own way but get's to indulge his passion. He will get a fine education. That same kid gets into Harvard and, because of the Harvard sliding tuition scale, has to pay about the same to go to Harvard but he cannot play hoops. Should he indulge his passion at the D III level or go to Harvard for the long term benefit of that degree?


If it were my kid, I would have a long conversation with him about what he wants to do and why he would want to do it. But ultimately it would be up to him. You have one life. No idea what the future holds. Ultimately the education that you earn is a tool. Sure some degrees are more valuable than others, but I strongly believe that once someone earns a degree, their success is about 80% up to them and not the value of the degree they have earned.

[Phantom Warrior]

Gato,

Interesting question. When he was a senior in high school, my son was told by two different D-1 soccer coaches that he could play soccer at the D-1 level but probably not the high-major level, that he would be a "practice player" at that level, but that he could earn decent minutes at a mid-major level program. He also considered playing D-3 at one of the best academic institutions in the country, where he would have gotten a terrific education.

We had exactly the type of conversation Sultan referred to. Money was definitely an issue at the D-3 schools. He probably could have earned a partial scholarship at an out-of-state mid-major D-1 school, or he could have been a walk-on at UW as the Badger coach at the time told us he liked his game but would not offer him a scholarship, even a partial scholarship.

I told my son I would cover the cost of a UW education regardless of which school he attende, but that anything above that cost was on him if he chose to go D-3 or out of state D-1. In short, all of the issues mentioned above - quality of education, cost, playing time - all entered into the picture.

My wife and I left it up to him as it was his life, his future, therefore his decision. I knew what my preference was, but it wasn't my life. In the end, I thought he made a wise decision, though certainly not the same decisions others might make in that situation.

[Gato78]

I raised that issue because I had a nephew who faced the same dilemma. He was an all-conference point guard at Naperville Central. He also, essentially, aced his ACT. He loved Notre Dame but had plenty of D3 coaches recruiting him. Money was not an object in his family. He went to Notre Dame and does not regret it at all.

[TulsaWarrior]

Unless you are a sure fire NBA level player or have the prospect of making big money overseas -- the power of buying into a school employment "network" should be a powerful factor in your decision. A playing career is finite. Long after you leave the court you will be looking for work and a place that feels like home, where people know your name. It opens a heck of a lot of doors. In broadcasting, most of the time early careers are built by knowing somebody. I don't think many recruits think of the aspect of what will my time at this particular school will mean after my playing days? There's talk of the quality of the education but that is a subjective judgement. (ask UW message board posters) Networking matters for all of us. It can be make or break.