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View Full Version : Joe Lunardi says.....


MUwarrior1090
02-29-2016, 01:17 PM
There is an ESPN Insider Article today. It talks about how there are basically 9 spots left for the NCAA Tournament, everyone else has locked up bids or they will be rewarded to single bid conferences. I don't want to post the whole article here since it's behind a paywall, but the gist is that those 9 spots will come down to 24 remaining teams. 7 of those are classified as "long shots" which means that they have a chance to get in if they win out to the conference championship, but typically no teams actually are capable of making that run.

Here is the excerpt:

Long shots (7). These teams aren't completely off the board, but they better not lose before their respective conference-championship games. In a typical year, no one from this category actually makes the tournament: BYU, Stanford, Creighton, Clemson, Florida State, Marquette, Georgia Tech.

He was also quoted as saying that RPI has less of an effect every year, so we (teams in general, not just Marquette) shouldn't be overly concerned with it.

Bottom line: Lunardi thinks we could get in if we win the next four. I don't necessarily agree, but he's far better at this than me. So unless we lose this week, I'm considering our at-large hopes alive. http://www.muscoop.com/Smileys/default/smiley.gif
WindyCityGoldenEagle
02-29-2016, 01:48 PM
For those that follow the bracketology more than I do, what is starting to receive more emphasis if RPI is receiving less? SOS, Sagarin?
warriorfan4life
02-29-2016, 01:51 PM
For those that follow the bracketology more than I do, what is starting to receive more emphasis if RPI is receiving less? SOS, Sagarin?

Pomeroy Rankings definitely played more of a factor last year.
WindyCityGoldenEagle
02-29-2016, 02:05 PM
Gotcha. What does Pomeroy place more emphasis on in comparison to rpi? I've heard many on here say rpi is a bit archaic but never understood why and what made Pom better.
warriorfan4life
02-29-2016, 02:26 PM
Gotcha. What does Pomeroy place more emphasis on in comparison to rpi? I've heard many on here say rpi is a bit archaic but never understood why and what made Pom better.

RPI does not factor in margin of victory. Also, that home-road adjustment went way overboard (I'd argue that the right ratio is 1.2-0.8, and not 1.4-0.6).
MKE_GoldenEagleFan
02-29-2016, 02:45 PM
the odds of us winning the next 4 straight is roughly .1% in my mind... the NCAA tournament died in my mind when we lost to Creighton, and that's not to say that was a bad loss, but it just made it too much of an uphill battle. I also think it is funny that some are clinging to the NCAA tournament still when we are not even a lock for the NIT, in fact as of Friday we were only a projected 5 seed in the NIT...
MUwarrior1090
02-29-2016, 02:47 PM
the odds of us winning the next 4 straight is roughly .1% in my mind... the NCAA tournament died in my mind when we lost to Creighton, and that's not to say that was a bad loss, but it just made it too much of an uphill battle. I also think it is funny that some are clinging to the NCAA tournament still when we are not even a lock for the NIT, in fact as of Friday we were only a projected 5 seed in the NIT...

Who cares if we're clinging to hope? It's part of being a fan. We all know that it's extremely unlikely.

I would give us about a 2% chance of winning the next 4 games and a 5% chance of winning the BET. But it's better than 0%
MUMac
02-29-2016, 03:31 PM
Who cares if we're clinging to hope? It's part of being a fan. We all know that it's extremely unlikely.

I would give us about a 2% chance of winning the next 4 games and a 5% chance of winning the BET. But it's better than 0%


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM&feature=player_detailpage#t=0
Markedman
02-29-2016, 04:00 PM
I found this comment about Nova interesting. https://twitter.com/ryanfagan/status/704409419430236160
warriorfan4life
02-29-2016, 04:10 PM
I found this comment about Nova interesting. https://twitter.com/ryanfagan/status/704409419430236160

Nova is benefiting from top teams taking on so many losses, as they have a 2-3 seed resume. I actually prefer X's on paper resume, but Nova likely finishing two games ahead of them in conference play vaults them ahead of Xavier.
WindyCityGoldenEagle
02-29-2016, 04:49 PM
RPI does not factor in margin of victory. Also, that home-road adjustment went way overboard (I'd argue that the right ratio is 1.2-0.8, and not 1.4-0.6).


Sorry, I know you've explained this before but one more time if you don't mind? It had something to do with RPI really emphasizing home losses and road wins or something along those lines?
warriorfan4life
02-29-2016, 04:59 PM
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Sorry, I know you've explained this before but one more time if you don't mind? It had something to do with RPI really emphasizing home losses and road wins or something along those lines?

There used to no difference between home and road wins in the RPI calculation, and that changed some time around 2005. Instead of making a minor adjustment, they made the adjustment to the 1.4-0.6 formula that we see today.
Nukem2
02-29-2016, 05:09 PM
There used to no difference between home and road wins in the RPI calculation, and that changed some time around 2005. Instead of making a minor adjustment, they made the adjustment to the 1.4-0.6 formula that we see today.

That "formula" is really mathematically out of wack.