Big East Point Guards

[Phantom Warrior]

I was thinking a little bit about this year's crop of BE point guards, so I did a bit of statistical research and discovered what I think is some pretty interesting data. Before continuing, I should add that I am not quite sure whom I would view as playing point for Xavier since none of the four guards who get considerable playing time seem to be true point guards. It kind of seems to be point guard by committee, but I decided to go with the freshman, Sumner, because he has the highest assist per game (apg) stat of any of Xavier's guards. Additionally, I went with Arcidiacono as Nova's point guard rather than Brunson because Arcidiacono is averaging 4.4 apg to Brunson's 3.3 apg. Anyway, here are a few conclusions I've drawn about this year's BE "point guards."

1. There are an awful lot of scoring point guards this year. In fact, 5 of the 10 point guards (Watson, Garrett, Smith-Rivera, Mussini, and Whitehead) lead their respective teams in points per game (ppg), while 3 others (Dunn, Arcidiacono, and Sumner) are their teams' second leading scorer. I think 80% of the starting point guards being either their team's leading or second leading scorer is probably extremely unusual. Only Smith (Butler) and Traci are not primary scorers for their respective team.

2. One reason for that stat may be that a number of the point guards are playing point by default and are really better suited to play the 2 guard in college - specifically Smith-Rivera, Whitehead, Mussini, and Sumner. An argument could be made that Garrett also fits that description.

3. While there are a lot of solid scorers playing point in the BE this year, the 10 point guards, overall, are not very efficient perimeter (three-point) shooters. In fact, 4 of the 10 - Garrett (27.9%), Dunn (28.6%), Traci (28.6%), and Smith-Rivera (29.4%) are under 30.0% so far for the year. Three others are between 30.0 and 33.3% (Whitehead, Mussini, and Lewis). Only 3 of the 10 have been consistent threats from behind the arc - Arcidiacono (37.0%), Sumner (38.7%), and Watson (40.0%).

4. Of the 10 point guards listed, seven are shooting at least 40% from the field with Arcidiacono leading the way (50.0%), but 3 of the other 9 are in the low 40s - Smith-Rivera (41.1%), Lewis (41.6%), and Garrett (42.0%), while 3 others are under 40% (which is my dividing line for at least a decent shooting percentage for a guard) - Mussini (39.1%), Whitehead (33.9%), and Traci (30.0%).

5. Only 2 of the 10 point guards are averaging even 5.0 apg - Dunn (7.3 apg) and Watson (6.4 apg). Traci just misses at this point (4.9 apg). The situation at Butler is a bit unusual. Lewis is averaging 4.3 apg, but Jones actually leads the team with 5.0 apg. Meanwhile, 4 players lead their team in assists with under 4.0 apg - Mussini (2.7 apg), Sumner (3.3 apg), Smith-Rivera (3.7 apg) and Garrett (3.7 apg). Again, in my mind all four of these players (as well as Whitehead (4.1 apg) are probably more natural 2 guards than point guards.

6. In terms of turnovers - taking care of the ball - 5 of the 10 are averaging at least 2.5 turnovers per game (tpg). Mussini (3.1 tpg) actually has an assist-turnover ratio of less than 0.9/1.0, but others are having their share of problems as well - Dunn (2.9 tpg), Whitehead (2.8 tpg), Sumner (2.6 tpg), and Watson (2.5 tpg). Arcidiacono is doing an excellent job (1.1 tpg), as is Lewis (1.2 tpg), while somewhat surprisingly - at least to me - Smith-Rivera also seems to be doing a good job of taking care of the ball (1.7 tpg), followed by Garrett (2.0 tpg). Traci ranks 5th at 2.3 tpg.

All in all, I view this as being a relatively unusual group of point guards with 8 of the 10 perhaps qualifying as what I would call scoring point guards. Of those 8, Watson and Dunn would also certainly qualify as distributors, while Lewis and Traci are better described as being primarily facilitators/distributors. I don't know if others will find these stats interesting but I think point guard play is the most crucial factor in most college teams' level of success, so I tend to follow point guards pretty closely.

[Nukem2]

Good analysis. It is a rather unusual group of PGs.

[Phantom Warrior]

Given these stats where would posters rank Traci among BE point guards? He is at the very bottom in terms of scoring and is at the bottom in terms of field goal percentage and almost at the bottom in terms of three-point shooting.

But he is third among the 10 listed in terms of assists per game behind only Watson, a fourth-year junior, and Dunn, who is in the running for National POY. And that's despite playing fewer mpg than any of the other nine. He is in the middle of the pack (5th) in terms of assist/turnover ratio. I might also point out that Traci ranks 2nd among the 10 players mentioned in terms of rebounding at 3.6 rpg, behind only Dunn at6.1 rpg. And again, he has played fewer mpg than the other nine. And he does rank 5th (76.9%) in free throw percentage.

So, where would others rank him against what is a pretty formidable group?

[IrwinFletcher]

I am really excited about Traci's future and what he will be by the time he is a Junior, but for right now, he would be in the bottom third of this group. This isn't an indictment of Traci, but more of a tip of the cap to a strong group of PG's.

Because some of the others are scorers first, their assist numbers will be down. And as nice as it is that Traci grabs 3.6 rpg, that isn't something you want your PG to do, so I don't consider that a huge plus necessarily.

[Nukem2]

I am really excited about Traci's future and what he will be by the time he is a Junior, but for right now, he would be in the bottom third of this group. This isn't an indictment of Traci, but more of a tip of the cap to a strong group of PG's.

Because some of the others are scorers first, their assist numbers will be down. And as nice as it is that Traci grabs 3.6 rpg, that isn't something you want your PG to do, so I don't consider that a huge plus necessarily.Why not? Dominic James averaged 4.5 RPG as a frosh.

[IrwinFletcher]

My point is that rpg for a PG isn't something I necessarily look at in order to judge their affectiveness. I think it is more important that a PG has a high assist rate or scoring average or assist/TO rate. It is certainly nice to have a PG rebound, but much like I wouldn't judge Luke Fischer on how many assists he averages per game, I am not going to judge Traci on is rpg.

[Nukem2]

My point is that rpg for a PG isn't something I necessarily look at in order to judge their affectiveness. I think it is more important that a PG has a high assist rate or scoring average or assist/TO rate. It is certainly nice to have a PG rebound, but much like I wouldn't judge Luke Fischer on how many assists he averages per game, I am not going to judge Traci on is rpg.
True, but I do think its a point of emphasis by most coaches for guards to be effective rebounders regardless if PG or 2G or wing.

[Goose85]

With the emphasis on 3 point shooting guards should be getting more boards. On many occasions at the last MU game the guys down low in good rebounding position had no chance for the ball as when a deep shot hits iron, it normally doesn't fall to the guys close to the hoop.

[Markedman]

I would put him near the bottom.....not at all unexpected considering his experience and the competition level.

[Nukem2]

With the emphasis on 3 point shooting guards should be getting more boards. On many occasions at the last MU game the guys down low in good rebounding position had no chance for the ball as when a deep shot hits iron, it normally doesn't fall to the guys close to the hoop.
Our guards had 3 rebounds tonite versus SHU. Whitehead and Carrington had 15 for SHU.

[Markedman]

Bigger faster stronger.....